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MLB Payroll Analysis and Offseason Preview: Chicago Cubs

By Joshua Mayer

May 14, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs left fielder Kris Bryant (left) and center fielder Dexter Fowler (right) and right fielder Jason Heyward (right) celebrate the final out of the ninth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field. Chicago won 8-2. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
May 14, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs left fielder Kris Bryant (left) and center fielder Dexter Fowler (right) and right fielder Jason Heyward (right) celebrate the final out of the ninth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field. Chicago won 8-2. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports /
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Mar 27, 2016; Mesa, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jason Hammel (39) pitches during the second inning against the Seattle Mariners at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 27, 2016; Mesa, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jason Hammel (39) pitches during the second inning against the Seattle Mariners at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports /

Options

Player 2016 Salary ($) 2017 Option WAR Stats
SP Jason Hammel 9 M 10 M CO 1.5 30 G, 3.83 ERA
OF Dexter Fowler 8 M 9 M MO 4.8 .274/.388/.448, 13 HR
Totals 17 M 19 M 6.3 –

CO: Club Option, MO: Mutual Option

With one mutual option and one club option, the Cubs will only have a final say in one of the two options this offseason. Let’s look at both cases:

Jason Hammel: With 30 above average starts, the tall righthander has made a strong case for his $10 million option to be picked up. Hammel has made it quite obvious he enjoys his time in Chicago, as he came back after being traded at the 2014 deadline. Similar to 2015, the issue for the Cubs fifth starter has been the second half. In 17 first half games, Hammel had a 3.46 ERA and 1.131 WHIP. In 13 second half starts, he has had 4.35 ERA and a 1.308 WHIP. Perhaps showing he has been a beneficiary of the Cubs great fielding, Hammel’s 4.48 FIP ranks just 57th out of 74 qualified MLB starters.

Due to the horrible market of pitching headlined by players like Jeremy Hellickson this offseason, Hammel would be in line for a nice multi-year deal if the Cubs declined his option. This is highly unlikely to happen as the 11-year veteran has been a valuable innings eater for Joe Maddon and company.

VERDICT: Picked up

Dexter Fowler: As much as the Cubs want Fowler to accept his mutual option for just $9 million, that is not going to happen. With his best OPS in four seasons, Fowler is lined up nicely for a large multi-year pact once he hits the open market. This go-round should be much smoother for Fowler compared to last. After 2015, teams were chasing guys like Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, and Alex Gordon. This offseason, Fowler will be second only to Cespedes on most team’s outfield wish-lists.

As valuable as Fowler is to the Cubs in the leadoff spot, he will most likely head where more money is being offered. After all, top prospect Albert Almora Jr. had an impressive showing in his cup of tea in the big leagues earlier this season, showing he could be capable of taking over the spot full time. Even without Almora, the Cubs could line up a formidable trio of Heyward, Zobrist, and a returning Kyle Schwarber, with Jorge Soler and Matt Szczur on the bench. With all of that depth, paying Fowler a large sum is unjustifiable.

VERDICT: Fowler signs a 4-year, $70-80 million contract elsewhere.

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