MLB Payroll Analysis and Offseason Preview: Chicago Cubs

Upcoming Free Agents

**Expected to retire, ***Discounts stats with Yankees in 2016, ^Discounts stats with Angels in 2016, ºDiscounts stats with Athletics in 2016

With only five free agents after the year, not accounting for David Ross who is retiring, the Cubs will have a couple decisions to make after their playoff run. Let’s look at each case player by player:

Aroldis Chapman: The flamethrower has been excellent for the Cubs since the team traded top prospect Gleyber Torres, outfield prospect Billy McKinney, swingman Adam Warren, and outfielder Rashad Crawford. In 28 games (26 ⅔ IP), Chapman has given up only four three runs, while striking out 46 batters. With a terrific 1.55 ERA and 90 K’s overall on the season, the Cuban lefty has raised his stock significantly in his walk year after it took a hit because of an assault incident over the offseason.

The Cubs would no doubt like to have Chapman back but they will see massive competition for his services. Today’s Knuckleball’s Jon Heyman was the first to report that the Yankees will be in the mix to bring the tall lefty back. With all the young talent on the North side of Chicago, Theo Epstein and company may not want to tie up a large amount of money to one reliever.

VERDICT: Chicago will end up being outbid, and Chapman will get a six year, $95 million contract, easily breaking the all time relief pitcher record.

Travis Wood: Since being converted to a reliever in early 2015, Wood has made 121 appearances out of the pen. With 45 games of 2.95 ball combined with 76 this year with a 2.98 ERA, Wood has revolutionized his career as a reliever. At the same time, there is always more money to be made on the open market as a starter. With such a weak free agent class for starting pitchers, the lefty could have a shot to catch on somewhere as a starter, though Chicago would not be that place with their rotation all but set. As much as the Cubs would want Wood back in the bullpen as a valuable lefty and as rotation depth, the team will not be willing to spend starting pitcher money to do so.

VERDICT: Ends up signing a one year $6-8 million deal with an opportunity to start elsewhere.

Joe Smith: Since being acquired by the Angels, Smith has appeared in 15 games with a 2.70 ERA. Though the earned run average looks good, Smith’s peripherals tell a different story. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) score is an ugly 6.44, and he has also given up four home runs in just 13 ⅓ innings. The righty has done his job to add a stable piece to the Cubs pen, but has been far from dominant. As a veteran on the wrong side of 30, his time in a Cubs uniform will most likely end this season.

VERDICT: Signs one year deal worth $3 million with a team in need of veteran relievers.

Chris Coghlan: After an atrocious start to the season with the Athletics, Coghlan was brought back to Chicago in exchange for Arismendy Alcantara midway through the year. Since that time, the utility man has hit a very useful .255/.389/.392 with 10 XBH in 102 at-bats. Coach Joe Maddon loves Coghlan’s ability to play defense productively in the infield and outfield. The former Rookie of the Year may get some interest on the open market, but nothing too exciting, prompting him to return to the Cubs, as his last stint away from Wrigley did not go very well.  

VERDICT: Re-sign with Cubs on one year, $3 million deal as a depth piece for Maddon.

Trevor Cahill: Most of what was said about Travis Wood can be copy and pasted here. Cahill was a former successful starter who moved to the Cubs bullpen halfway through 2015. Since the time, the righty has been a steady contributor out of the Chicago bullpen. With 65 ⅔ innings this year, Cahill has pitched to a 2.74 ERA with a solid 9.0 K/9, but a worrisome 4.8 BB/9. The former Athletics All Star showcased himself nicely in a start with five scoreless innings, and only two hits given up. As a still young 28 year old, Cahill will look for an opportunity as a starter to put himself in position for a big contract afterwards.

VERDICT: Signs one year, $5-7 million deal with an opportunity to start elsewhere.

David Ross: Yes, he is retiring, but it will be interesting to see where the veteran goes from here. As a highly respected catcher, Ross’s name is sure to come up for coaching vacancies within the next couple of seasons. The backstop has had an excellent walk season, totally 10 home runs for the first time since 2007.