Seattle Mariners: Top Five Offseason Priorities

Outfield

The Mariners have some decisions to make with their outfield. They only set spot is Leonys Martin in center field. He made $4.15 million last year and is eligible for arbitration this year. Martin was much improved in 2016 compared to a truly dreadful 2015 season, but was still below average at the plate (88 wRC+). His fielding in center made him just slightly better than league average. For an arbitration-eligible player, that’s workable. One concern with Martin’s season was a significant first half/second half split. He hit .243/.313/.404 in the first half and was just 3% below league average as a hitter. His on-base percentage and slugging percentage dropped in the second half (.251/.299/.354) and he was 22% below league average (78 wRC+). Eleven of Martin’s 15 home runs came in the first half. The Mariners would love to see the first-half version of Martin stick around for an entire season, but his career batting line is closer to the second half version.

Beyond Martin, the Mariners have Nelson Cruz under contract for two more seasons. Cruz has been a very good investment so far, with back-to-back seasons with 40-plus home runs, but the Mariners are wisely transitioning Cruz away from the outfield and to the DH spot. He played 80 games in the field in 2015 and 48 last season. He’s not a good outfielder, so they should continue to limit his time in the field in the two years remaining on his contract.

The Mariners need to decide whether to pick up club options on two other outfielders, Nori Aoki and Seth Smith. Aoki was the primary left fielder. He’s not an asset in the field, but he’s not terrible either. He sometimes takes creative angles to fly balls, but at least he has more range than the Nelson Cruz statue that is sometimes placed in right field. At the plate, Aoki can reliably be counted on for a .350-ish on-base percentage. Another benefit with Aoki is that he doesn’t have a big platoon split. He’s actually hit left-handed pitching slightly better than right-handed pitching in his career. The Mariners should pick up his $6 million option.

Seth Smith, on the other hand, has a big platoon split. He should rarely play against lefties (60 wRC+ for his career) and he’s also not a very good fielder. His club option is for $7 million. That’s not much in the world of baseball, but he has enough limitations that it makes for a more difficult decision. The Mariners may want to see what they have in Ben Gamel, a lefty-hitting outfielder who was acquired in a trade with the Yankees last August. Gamel will be 25 years old next year and has hit .304/.361/.447 in two seasons in Triple-A. He could be a cheap replacement for Smith if the M’s don’t want to pick up Smith’s option.

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Franklin Gutierrez is a free agent who made $1.5 million with the M’s last year. His main asset is the ability to hit left-handed pitching, which he did quite well last year (.280/.373/.511). He didn’t hit righties at all, though (.145/.182/.274) and isn’t close to the fielder he used to be. If he could be re-signed for a similar contract, the Mariners should sign him, but I don’t think they should pay much more than that.

Of the remaining outfielders who are major league ready, Guillermo Heredia is the most interesting. The Mariners signed him out of Cuba in February. He hit .293/.405/.376 in Double-A, then .312/.378/.413 in Triple-A. He has good command of the strike zone, with a walk rate of 11.5% in 524 plate appearances across three levels of baseball. He won’t hit for much power, but if he can get on base at a good clip and play defense well, he would be a big asset. He played all three outfield positions for the M’s last year.

The best minor league outfielders in the organization are not yet ready for prime time. Alex Jackson was a top prospect a couple years ago, but regressed greatly and is not as highly regarded these days. Tyler O’Neill had a very good year in Double-A, but he’s more likely to see the big leagues in 2018 or 2019. Boog Powell missed half of the 2016 season because of a positive PED test. There just isn’t much help coming from the farm this year.

The free agent market for outfielders has players at all different levels of expected compensation. Here are some interesting free agents-to-be with their 2017 age and 2016 salary:

LF Yoenis Cespedes, 31, $27.5 million (can opt out of 2-year/$47.5M contract)

LF Colby Rasmus, 30, $15.8 million

LF Ian Desmond, 31, $8 million

LF Michael Saunders, 30, $2.9 million

CF Carlos Gomez, 31, $9 million

RF Carlos Beltran, 39, $15 million

RF Jose Bautista, 36, $14 million

RF Mark Trumbo, 31, $9.15 million

RF Josh Reddick, 30, $6.575 million

Ultimately, the Mariners need to decide whether they want to piece together an outfield with many of the same players they used last year, spend the money on a free agent, or look for help in a trade. One trade option floated recently by broadcaster Chuck Powell of KJR radio in Seattle is the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Andrew McCutchen. Powell argues that the Pirates may be willing to part with McCutchen for James Paxton and two minor league players.

I could see this as a possibility, depending on the prospects involved. The Pirates are unlikely to keep McCutchen beyond the two remaining years on his contract and they could move Starling Marte to center field to replace Cutch. The Pirates also need pitching. It’s an interesting possibility. McCutchen is coming off his worst season in the big leagues, but he was a perennial all-star for the previous five years and will only be 30 years old in 2017. I expect a bounce-back year. If the Mariners are willing to give up enough, the bounce-back year could be in Seattle.