MLB: Five Aging Stars Primed to Decline in 2017

The 2017 MLB season could be the beginning of the end for some of the brightest stars of the past 15 years.

The best careers in MLB are those that have both longevity and a high peak. After that peak has been traversed, sometimes the fall can be a little less graceful than some may like.

In the 2016 season there were 17 hitters age 34 or older who played a full season of at least 502 plate appearances, and seven starting pitchers age 34 or older who pitched a full season of at least 162 innings. Out of these 24 players, only David Ortiz rode off into the sunset. This leaves a plentiful sample of older players who are still major league regulars late in their careers.

Some of these players, such as Adrian Beltre (approaching his age-38 season), Ian Kinsler (35) and Nelson Cruz (36), display few signs of slowing down. Other players, such as Alexei Ramirez (35) and James Shields (35) have all but worn out their usefulness as starters. Somewhere in the middle is a group of players who are prime candidates to see the effects of age catch up to them, either starting or accelerating the decline of very good to great careers.

Here are five players who might see their production take a significant downturn in 2017 as Father Time works his unfortunate magic.

Adrian Gonzalez – Los Angeles Dodgers – Born: May 8, 1982

Adrian Gonzalez, entering his age-35 season, has displayed remarkable durability in his 11 full MLB seasons starting with his tenure as a San Diego Padre back in 2006. That year he played in 156 games with 631 plate appearances, each of those figures matched or surpassed in the 10 subsequent seasons.

Gonzalez’s average season during this span saw him hitting .292/.364/.495, good for a 135 OPS+, with 27 home runs and 102 RBI. His defense at first base has been consistently strong, earning him four gold gloves. 2016 marked a noticeable decline for the Dodgers’ cleanup hitter, as his 113 OPS+ was the lowest of his career and his defense regressed to somewhere around average.

Last season may have been the start of a trend as opposed to a blip in the radar for Gonzalez. While his batting average increased slightly in 2016 from the previous two seasons, his batting average on balls in play surged 34 points to .328, 10 points above his career average. This suggests further regression is possible.

Gonzalez’s batted ball tendencies also show cause for concern. While his line drive percentage of 26.4% was a career-high, his ground ball percentage surged to 46.2% while his fly ball percentage plummeted to 27.5%. As Gonzalez ages and loses speed (though he never had much to begin with), more ground balls will equal more outs. He is hitting the ball with less authority, as his hard-hit percentage of 32.8% was the second-lowest of his career.

Adrian Gonzalez will still be an adequate major league first baseman, though his 2015 all-star appearance will almost certainly go down as his last.

CC Sabathia – New York Yankees – Born: July 21, 1980

CC Sabathia experienced something of a career resurgence at 35. Following a few rather dreadful seasons, Sabathia recorded a 3.91 ERA across 30 starts in 2016, better than the league average for the first time since 2012. He will be pitching for a new contract – perhaps his last – this season, so it is more crucial than ever for Sabathia to prove that 2016 was an accurate representation of his abilities as opposed to what those in the financial sector would dub a dead cat bounce.

Sabathia underwent knee surgery this offseason, but is expected to have a clean bill of health in time for spring training. Even so, durability has to be a concern for the big lefty. This was not an issue early in his career as Sabathia pitched at least 180 innings in his first 13 big league seasons. His 3,168.1 career innings pitched is only four less than the active leader, Sabathia’s one-time rotation mate and ageless wonder Bartolo Colon. All of those innings on a 6-foot-6, 300-pound frame will take its toll.

Sabathia will be an interesting case for the Hall of Fame when his career is over, as his 223 wins rank second among active pitchers and his 2,726 strikeouts rank first. His career WAR of around 60 puts him in the conversation, but he likely needs a gentler decline to get over the hump.

The decline might not be so gentle. In addition to health concerns, Sabathia’s peripheral numbers in 2016 deserve a second look. His walk rate of 3.26 per nine innings was his highest since 2004. As a pitcher who now sits around 90 mph with his fastball as opposed to 94 in his peak, Sabathia can ill-afford to lose control and command of his pitches 10 years removed from his Cy Young season of 2007.

Chase Utley – Free Agent – Born: December 17, 1978

Chase Utley looked just about done in 2015 when he hit a dreadful .212/.286/.343 for the Phillies and Dodgers. However, given ample time atop the Los Angeles lineup in 2016, Utley rebounded by improving his OPS 87 points from the previous year and scoring 79 runs, his most since 2009. Utley’s once elite defense at second base has come back to the pack, but his production was good enough for a solid two wins above replacement.

Utley is no longer a star, but his peak from 2005-2009 was tremendous, easily surpassing seven wins above replacement each year. He didn’t take full control of the second base job in Philadelphia until that 2005 season, though, at the age of 26. The presence of Placido Polanco early in his career and injuries later in his career have kept his numbers in check, but Utley’s line stands up against some of the greatest who have played the position. His seven-year peak surpasses that of Hall of Famers such as Ryne Sandberg, Frankie Frisch, Roberto Alomar and Craig Biggio, while his career wins above replacement total leaves him nested between Biggio and Robinson Cano.

Despite a great career and a nice rebound season, Utley remains a free agent without an obvious suitor, though the Dodgers could be open to a return on a one-year deal. His price will be driven down to where he will not present a great financial risk to the club that signs him, but the ceiling is low on Utley. His 2016 walk rate of 7.1% was the lowest since he became a full-time player, and his ground ball rate has increased as his speed has decreased.

Chase Utley has had a great career, but despite a decent last hurrah in 2016, the likelihood of a career resurgence is low entering his age-38 season.

John Lackey – Chicago Cubs – Born: October 23, 1978

In the four seasons since his Tommy John surgery, John Lackey has been a very effective pitcher, compiling a 48-41 record with a 3.35 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 122 starts. Pitching for three different teams in this span, Lackey’s teams have won division titles each season and World Series rings in 2013 and 2016. Look past his horrendous 2011 season with Boston (6.41 ERA over 160 innings pitched) and you have a solid career.

Lackey’s numbers would appear to give no indication of a downturn as he enters his age-38 season, but closer examination suggests a regression is coming. In 2015 with the Cardinals, Lackey’s ERA outperformed his Fielding Independent Pitching metric by a significant 0.80 runs. His 2016 ERA with the Cubs was 0.46 runs better than his FIP. Even if Lackey pitches at levels close to the past two years, his ERA is likely to continue inching closer to 4.00.

There are indications, though, that Lackey will regress further than this. His batting average on balls in play against was a remarkably low .255 in 2016, 47 points below his career average. Even pitching in front of a tremendous defensive club, that figure is not sustainable. Lackey’s allowed a higher rate of line drives and induced a lower rate of ground balls than at any point over the previous decade. Opponents had a 34.4% hard hit rate off Lackey, higher than at any point in his career and 6.6% above his career average.

John Lackey will only make $16 million this season, not bad for someone with his pedigree. By the end of 2017, however, this figure will seem like far too much for the tall Texan.