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Seattle Mariners: Are They Contenders?

By Bobby Mueller

Aug 18, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; A view of a Seattle Mariners ball cap and glove during the game between the Texas Rangers and the Seattle Mariners at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Mariners defeat the Rangers 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 18, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; A view of a Seattle Mariners ball cap and glove during the game between the Texas Rangers and the Seattle Mariners at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Mariners defeat the Rangers 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports /
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May 25, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners center fielder Leonys Martin (12) hits an RBI-single against the Oakland Athletics during the third inningg at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
May 25, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners center fielder Leonys Martin (12) hits an RBI-single against the Oakland Athletics during the third inningg at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports /

 

Left Field—2.0 WAR

Jarrod Dyson—1.7 WAR (420 PA)

Ben Gamel—0.1 WAR (140 PA)

Guillermo Heredia—0.1 WAR (70 PA) 

Dyson has never been a league average hitter. He has mediocre on-base ability and no power and he doesn’t hit left-handed pitching very well at all. When he gets on base, he can run, though. He’s averaged 31 steals per year over the last five years, despite never having more than 340 plate appearances in a season. He’s also a terrific fielder, which is the main reasons Dipoto acquired him. Dipoto wants a great defensive outfield and Dyson helps him get there. Gamel has hit well in Triple-A over the last two years but only has 67 major league plate appearances. Heredia has 107 major league plate appearances. They are both question marks simply because they haven’t proven they can be productive major league players yet. This spot won’t provide much offense, but the defense should be very good.

Center Field—1.9 WAR

Leonys Martin—1.5 WAR (609 PA)

Jarrod Dyson—0.4 WAR (70 PA) 

Leonys Martin has had the same struggles against left-handed pitching as Dyson in his career. Either player can handle center field, but the Mariners may end up needing a right-handed bat to play the position against tough lefties. If that’s the case, Gamel, Heredia, or Haniger could get time here. Martin had a very good start to last season. Through June 15, he was hitting .255/.332/.473, with 10 home runs in 49 games. Everything was coming up roses. From that point on he hit .244/.294/.334 with 5 home runs in 94 games. That was barely better than his terrible 2015 season with the Rangers. Hopefully, a respectable version of Martin will show up this year. Dyson can play center field even better than Martin, so there’s no drop-off defensively with either in the lineup.

Right Field—2.2 WAR

Mitch Haniger—1.6 WAR (490 PA)

Danny Valencia—0.1 WAR (70 PA)

Nelson Cruz—0.3 WAR (70 PA) 

The Mariners are hoping Haniger can handle right field on a regular basis so they can keep Nelson Cruz away from fly balls. Haniger has played in 34 games in the big leagues, all coming last year with the Diamondbacks. He hit .229/.309/.404. He was very good in Triple-A before that, hitting .341/.428/.670 with 20 homers 74 games, so there’s upside here with the 26-year-old.

Designated Hitter—2.1 WAR

Nelson Cruz—1.9 WAR (560 PA)

Dan Vogelbach—0.1 WAR (70 PA) 

Cruz has averaged 4.2 WAR per season over the last three years, so this projection probably looks light to Mariners fans. Of course, he will be 36 years old and age catches up to every player at some point. I think between 2 and 4 WAR is reasonable, but I wouldn’t expect another 40 HR season from him.

Much like the last two seasons, the offense will be built around Cano, Seager, and Cruz. The team is also expecting Segura will resemble the top-of-the-lineup player he was last year. Zunino will provide power but little on-base ability. Haniger should also provide some power. Dyson and Martin can each steal 20 or more bases. Offensively, the outfield is filled with uncertainty, but they can sure field the ball well, which should help the Mariners pitching rotation. That’s good because the rotation looks like it will need all the help it can get.

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