MLB: Ranking the Teams That Will Regress in 2017

Instead of predicting which teams will improve like before, now we are taking a look at the teams that will take a hit in 2017. Whether it is loss of talent, or their peers getting better, these teams will regress the most in 2017.

Major League Baseball is a tricky, tricky thing to master. The game of baseball is a hard sport to master, and with the game ever so evolving it has become increasingly hard for teams to remain dominant. The longest reigning postseason streak in baseball right now belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers with 4, a streak that seems small but stands high in the ranks of MLB history. Outside of two abnormalities, the 1995-2007 Yankees and 1991-2005 Braves, the longest postseason streak stands at five. Plus, those two abnormalities occurred mostly at the same time, which may be a statement of the state of the league at that time.

Regardless, only 15 times has a team managed to make it to the postseason four or more years in a row. The New York Yankees account for 6 of these occasions, leaving us with 9 of these occasions. All of this is a testament to how hard it is to remain great at the big league level, a thing that some franchises will fail to do in 2017.

Baseball has the best developmental system in all of American sports, hands down. Arguably, the only sport that may come close is soccer, and that is because massive clubs sign teenagers to compete in a youth academy. Regardless, this great developmental system that baseball has managed to create causes the league to evolve every single year. Players must get better or they will fall behind, much like teams. This is why we see teams go from zeros to heroes, and vise versa.

So, which teams will take the fall from grace in 2017? Using the difference in wins as our ranking metric, lets take a look.

2. Baltimore Orioles

• 2016 Record: 89-73
• Projected 2017 Record: 81-81 (Difference: -8)

Losing the same amount of wins as the Chicago White Sox, the Baltimore Orioles will see themselves fall out of playoff contention. Although they did just resign slugger Mark Trumbo, that move alone may not be enough to bolster a great playoff push. The Orioles seem to be losing Matt Wieters, Pedro Alvarez, and Steve Pearce. While these aren’t significant losses, it may be enough to add 8 loses to their resume. The Orioles power bats has carried them in the past, and with a shaky pitching staff the power bats will not be able to carry Baltimore into October.

The problem with relying on the long ball to win games is that hitting home runs is so inconsistent. The Orioles alone have two players that justifiably have doubts on if they can be superstar sluggers. Mark Trumbo and Chris Davis are extreme power hitters that have that possibility of regressing. Davis went from 53 home runs to 26, back up to 47 then down to 38. Trumbo, outside of last year and his time as an Angel, has proven to be even more inconsistent. With Trumbo and Davis carrying the power load, they may fall off and slug a combined 40 home runs.

A combined 40 home runs is not enough to make the playoffs with their pitching rotation. Yes, it could potentially have a lot of promise but their rotation does not seem to stand on the same caliber as other playoff teams. The Orioles current rotation would have ranked 18th in Fangraphs WAR last season. The only playoff team lower is the number one inclusion on this list. Without massive power, the Orioles may level out and settle as a .500 team.

1. Texas Rangers

• 2016 Record: 95-67
• Projected 2017 Record: 82-80 (Difference: -13)

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The Texas Rangers will fall from grace in 2017, I said it at the beginning of the off-season and I remain in that stance. Not only have the Rangers lost some key pieces, their peers in the AL West are only getting better.

The Mariners look posed to finally take home the division crown, the Astros are a close second and the Angels are improving and getting healthier. Trends from last season are not on the Rangers side, and their current pitching staff ranks 24th in WAR. Long story short, the Rangers reign of dominance is over.

I’ve reiterated this point so often it is getting old, the Rangers luck in one-run games is going to run out. In 2016 the Rangers were 36-11 in one-run games. Therefore, over one-third of their wins were close contests that they barely pulled away from. Yes, this could a be a good sign of their bullpen, that they can perform in high leverage situations. However, if you imagine that the Rangers didn’t get the same bounces, or the same minor occurrences, they could have been a far worse team. Let’s say they went just over .500 in their league leading one run games, now they become an 83 win team.

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Losing the likes of Mitch Moreland and Ian Desmond is only going to hurt their chances in close games. Their pitching staff has potential to be great, barring if there isn’t a surplus of injuries. The Rangers would need everything to go right once again in 2017, and that won’t happen. They will get overtaken by superior teams, and see themselves add 13 losses to their record.