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MLB: Comparing Projected Standings From FanGraphs and PECOTA

By Bobby Mueller

Sep 19, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view of the centerfield scoreboard at Wrigley Field during the game between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 19, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view of the centerfield scoreboard at Wrigley Field during the game between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /
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Fenway Park, home of the Boston Red Sox, is creeping up on its 100th birthday. Credit: Greg M. Cooper
Fenway Park, home of the Boston Red Sox, is creeping up on its 100th birthday. Credit: Greg M. Cooper. MLB. /

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

(W=wins, RS=Runs Scored, RA=Runs Allowed)

Vegas odds to win the pennant in parenthesis

 

PECOTA

90 W, 750 RS, 663 RA—Boston Red Sox (5/2)

84 W, 722 RS, 690 RA—Tampa Bay Rays (50/1)

81 W, 767 RS, 763 RA—Toronto Blue Jays (10/1)

81 W, 737 RS, 732 RA—New York Yankees (10/1)

73 W, 727 RS, 813 RA—Baltimore Orioles (20/1)

 

FANGRAPHS

92 W, 802 RS, 692 RA—Boston Red Sox (5/2)

83 W, 778 RS, 753 RA—Toronto Blue Jays (10/1)

83 W, 765 RS, 745 RA—New York Yankees (10/1)

82 W, 713 RS, 701 RA—Tampa Bay Rays (50/1)

79 W, 787 RS, 810 RA—Baltimore Orioles (20/1)

 

Biggest difference in wins: Baltimore Orioles, 6 wins

Biggest difference in runs scored: Baltimore Orioles, 60 runs

Biggest difference in runs allowed: Boston Red Sox 29 runs

Smallest difference in wins: Tie—Boston/Tampa Bay/Toronto/New York, 2 wins

Smallest difference in runs scored: Tampa Bay, 9 runs

Smallest difference in runs allowed: Baltimore Orioles, 3 runs

 

PECOTA and FanGraphs see the AL East shaping up similarly. The Red Sox are on a tier of their own at the top with 90-plus wins, then the Rays, Jays, and Yankees in the middle with between 81 and 84 wins. The Orioles are at the bottom. FanGraphs has the O’s with 79 wins compared to PECOTA’s prediction of 73. This six-win difference is the biggest in the division between the two systems.

The Orioles won 89 games last season. The big difference between last season and this season is that the Orioles allowed 715 runs last year and both projection systems see them allowing almost 100 more runs. The six-win difference between the two systems can be explained by FanGraphs projecting the Orioles’ offense to score 787 runs and PECOTA projection them to score 727. They scored 744 runs last year.

The Vegas odds to win the pennant agree that the Red Sox are the class of the division. They have the second best odds in all of baseball (5/2), behind only the Chicago Cubs (9/5). Both systems have the Rays as competitive for a wild card spot, but Vegas does not agree with this assessment. At 50/1, they have the worst odds to win the pennant of any team in the division.

Tampa Bay has the most surprising projection of any team in the AL East. They only won 68 games last year but are projected to win 84 by PECOTA and 82 by FanGraphs. One thing to consider is that their runs scored and runs allowed last season suggest they should have finished 76-86 (using the Bill James Pythagorean expectation formula). Their 68 wins was eight fewer than expected. If you consider the Rays to be a 76-win team last season, then their projection for 84 and 82 wins doesn’t seem like such a stretch.

 

 

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