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MLB: Comparing Projected Standings From FanGraphs and PECOTA

By Bobby Mueller

Sep 19, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view of the centerfield scoreboard at Wrigley Field during the game between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 19, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view of the centerfield scoreboard at Wrigley Field during the game between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /
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AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL

(W=wins, RS=Runs Scored, RA=Runs Allowed)

Vegas odds to win the pennant in parenthesis

PECOTA

92 W, 798 RS, 687 RA—Cleveland Indians (3/1)

80 W, 734 RS, 746 RA—Minnesota Twins (65/1)

78 W, 741 RS, 770 RA—Detroit Tigers (15/1)

76 W, 701 RS, 754 RA—Chicago White Sox (50/1)

71 W, 681 RS, 779 RA—Kansas City Royals (20/1)

 

FANGRAPHS

91 W, 776 RS, 680 RA—Cleveland Indians (3/1)

82 W, 773 RS, 758 RA—Detroit Tigers (15/1)

77 W, 726 RS, 760 RA—Kansas City Royals (20/1)

74 W, 745 RS, 815 RA—Minnesota Twins (65/1)

70 W, 703 RS, 807 RA—Chicago White Sox (50/1)

 

Biggest difference in wins: Tie—Minnesota/Chicago/Kansas City, 6 wins

Biggest difference in runs scored: Kansas City Royals, 45 runs

Biggest difference in runs allowed: Minnesota Twins, 69 runs

 

Smallest difference in wins: Cleveland Indians, 1 win

Smallest difference in runs scored: Chicago White Sox, 2 runs

Smallest difference in runs scored: Cleveland Indians, 7 runs

 

Once again, we have one team projected to finish with a comfortable lead atop the division. In this case, it’s the Cleveland Indians, last year’s AL champions. Cleveland won 94 games last season, so their projections for 92 and 91 wins seem perfectly reasonable.

The AL Central is the division with the biggest discrepancy between PECOTA and FanGraphs. Three teams have projections that are different by six wins. The big shocker here is the PECOTA projection of 80 wins for the Minnesota Twins. FanGraphs has the Twins winning 74 games, which is still a considerable improvement over last year’s 59-win team.

Based on runs scored and runs allowed, last year’s Twins “should” have been 64-98, which is still a long way from the 80 wins PECOTA is projecting. The big difference is a significant improvement in runs allowed. The Twins allowed the second-most runs in baseball last year (889). PECOTA is projecting the Twins to allow 746 runs. That’s almost a full run per game difference and is the equivalent of around 14 wins.

The Vegas odds to win the pennant definitely do not agree with PECOTA on the Twins. They have the worst odds in the divisions, sitting at 65/1, which is even worse than the rebuilding White Sox (50/1). It should be mentioned that the Kansas City Royals have greatly exceeded expectations the last four years. Vegas has them at 20/1 odds to win the pennant this year, which suggests they are a third place team in the AL Central, behind Cleveland and Detroit.

 

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