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MLB: Comparing Projected Standings From FanGraphs and PECOTA

By Bobby Mueller

Sep 19, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view of the centerfield scoreboard at Wrigley Field during the game between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 19, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view of the centerfield scoreboard at Wrigley Field during the game between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sep 30, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; A general view of a baseball prior to a game between the Kansas City Royals and the Cleveland Indians at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 30, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; A general view of a baseball prior to a game between the Kansas City Royals and the Cleveland Indians at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports. MLB. /

PECOTA CONTENDING TEAMS

American League

93-69 Houston Astros—AL West winner

92-70 Cleveland Indians—AL Central winner

90-72 Boston Red Sox—AL East winner

87-75 Seattle Mariners

84-78 Texas Rangers

84-78 Tampa Bay Rays

81-81 Toronto Blue Jays

81-81 New York Yankees

PECOTA sees a small gap between the three division winners and the top wild card team, which is the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners have a projected three-game cushion over the Rangers and Rays, with the Blue Jays and Yankees a few games behind them. Every other team is projected to be under .500.

National League

98-64 Los Angeles Dodgers—NL West winner

91-71 Chicago Cubs—NL Central winner

88-74 New York Mets—NL East winner

87-75 Washington Nationals

86-76 San Francisco Giants

81-81 Pittsburgh Pirates

The Mets and Nationals look to battle it out in the NL East, but the Dodgers and Cubs are projected to cruise to division titles. The wild card battle looks like it’s in the hands of the Giants and the loser of the Nationals/Mets quest for the NL East.

FANGRAPHS CONTENDING TEAMS

American League

92-70 Boston Red Sox—AL East winner

91-71 Cleveland Indians—AL Central winner

90-72 Houston Astros—AL West winner

84-78 Los Angeles Angels

83-79 Seattle Mariners

83-79 Texas Rangers

83-79 Toronto Blue Jays

83-79 New York Yankees

82-80 Tampa Bay Rays

82-80 Detroit Tigers

FanGraphs is projecting a six-win gap between the worst division winner and the best wild card team. The while card looks like a free-for-all, with seven teams projected to win between 82 and 84 games.

National League

95-67 Los Angeles Dodgers—NL West winner

94-68 Chicago Cubs—NL Central winner

90-72 Washington Nationals—NL East winner

87-75 San Francisco Giants

84-78 New York Mets

84-78 St. Louis Cardinals

82-80 Pittsburgh Pirates

Next: Yankees Add Some Thump

FanGraphs sees more team in play for the wild card spots in the National League. The Giants look like a cut above the others, but FanGraphs is projecting the Mets, Cardinals, and Pirates to fight it out for that last wild card spot.

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