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MLB Team X-Factors for 2017, Part IV: NL East

By Jim Turvey

May 31, 2016; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets pitchers Noah Syndergaard (34) and Jacob deGrom (48) during batting practice before a game against the Chicago White Sox at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
May 31, 2016; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets pitchers Noah Syndergaard (34) and Jacob deGrom (48) during batting practice before a game against the Chicago White Sox at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /
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Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /

Atlanta Braves – Matt Kemp

There’s a bit of buzz surrounding the Braves heading into 2017. After three seasons of wandering the playoff-less desert, the Braves move into their new stadium with the potential to surprise a few folks. The club added veteran pitchers R.A. Dickey, Bartolo Colon and Jaime Garcia over the offseason, giving them a rotation that looks surprisingly competent. Led by Julio Teheran and brought up by Mike Foltynewicz, there’s young talent and veteran ability top to bottom.

Where the Braves could really make some noise, however, is with the bats. This stat was batted around a bit in 2016, but it’s been a long offseason, so here’s a reminder: In the second half of the 2016 season, the Braves posted the fourth-best offense in baseball, per wRC+.

Freddie Freeman was absolutely lit in the second half (177 wRC+), but the addition of Matt Kemp at the trade deadline also played a key role in the jump the Braves offense made from the first half of the season (30th in wRC+). The Braves were able to get Kemp for a relatively low price (prospect Hector Olivera) because the San Diego Padres were simply trying to move on from the massive contract they agreed to take on after the 2014 season.

Considering the strange money allocations that went along with the trade (MLB Trade Rumors makes it a bit clearer here), Kemp was more than worth the trade for Atlanta down the stretch in 2016. The 32-year-old ex of Rihanna slashed .280/.336/.519 in 56 games for Atlanta, good for an OPS+ of 126. The Braves were 30-26 over that stretch, a 162-game pace of 87-win team – right around the playoff zone.

If they want to reach those heights in 2017, Kemp will need to not only continue to hit like he did in Atlanta last year, he’ll also have to be something less than the defensive sieve he has turned into in recent seasons. Despite all that hitting in Atlanta, Kemp’s defense was so bad that he was worth precisely nothing overall (-0.0 bWAR), at least according to Baseball-Reference. That seems a bit harsh, but with no DH spot to hide Kemp, we’ll get a chance to see if he can bounce back from the recent trends in his defense. This defensive challenge, along with needing to keep hitting in the middle of the order, will be key for Atlanta in 2017.

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