MLB Team X-Factors for 2017, Part IV: NL East

Miami Marlins – Giancarlo Stanton

With some of these picks (Mitch Haniger, Aaron Judge) it’s fun to go for some less obvious names. Guys who are at the big league level but might not be the name you first think of when you hear the team’s name.

That’s not the case in Miami. In Miami, the case is clear: If The Mighty Giancarlo Stanton stays healthy, they will have a chance to linger around the fringes of the playoff picture; if Stanton spends an extended period of time on the disabled list (or battling through injuries that sap him of his power), there’s not much hope for them.

Stanton recently turned 27, and in his seven seasons in the big leagues has never played more than 150 games. In fact, in five of those seven seasons, he has failed to top 123 games played. For a player who has been worth 5.7 bWAR/650 plate appearances over the course of his career, that’s obviously a big caveat.

The power has never been in question for Stanton. In his rookie season, Stanton launched 22 home runs in 100 games and topped .500 with his slugging percentage. In doing so, he became the first 20-year-old to slug .500 in a season (min. 100 games) since Alex Rodriguez. Before A-Rod, you have to go back to 1965 (Tony Conigliaro) to find another such player.

With such a high bar set, one could make the case that Stanton has been a bit of a disappointment since. (That kills me to say, since Stanton is either my favorite or second-favorite player in baseball right now.) He had a monster 2014 season (37 HR, 6.5 bWAR, second in MVP), but he’s never really had that season we thought he might be capable of. You know, that season where he hits 50 home runs, drives in 120 and is worth somewhere in the vicinity of 8.0 WAR. With the Marlins not looking like the most viable contenders this season, that season might be the only way the club breaks their playoff drought, which has quietly reached 13 years – second-longest in MLB.