MLB Team X-Factors for 2017, Part V: NL Central
By Jim Turvey
Chicago Cubs – Wade Davis
It is mighty difficult to imagine any one player on the Cubs truly making enough of a difference to drop the Cubs out of the playoffs (despite the luscious introduction to this article). The Cubs have as much team talent as any club in recent memory. What happens if Kris Bryant slips from an 8-win player to a 4-win player (which I would say is quite unlikely)? Well the team falls all the way down from 103 wins to 99 wins – still a great team. What happens if Kyle Hendricks sees his ERA jump from 2.13 to 3.59 (his xFIP in 2016)? Well maybe that’s one or two losses, but the team would still be prohibitive favorites to win the NL Central.
The team is so ridiculously stacked that an article had to be written with the premise that a Joe Maddon team building exercise would have to result in Kris Bryant being eaten by a snake to see the Cubs miss the postseason this year.
Besides a snake going rogue (and the other, less ridiculous ways Kram laid out), there is one other way I could see it happening. A complete and utter bullpen collapse. We all know how volatile bullpens can be and as smart as Theo and co. are, no one has proven they have solved year-to-year reliable bullpen arms just yet. The Cubs had the eighth-best bullpen ERA in 2016, but they ranked just 14th by FIP. The club will also be without the second half brilliance (1.01 ERA, 15.5 K/9) of Aroldis Chapman who the Cubs brought in to solidify the bullpen at the 2016 trade deadline.
This year’s closer for the Cubs will be Wade Davis, he of the vaunted “HDH” Royals killer bullpen that led to them to much success in 2014 and 2015. Davis is fresh off a season in which he saved 27 games and finished the year with an ERA of 1.87. So why is he such an x-factor? For one, we just noted how volatile bullpen arms can be. Despite his nice ERA, Davis also posted an xFIP of 3.68 last season, also know as a worse xFIP than Keone Kela (3.64 xFIP) a Phillies reliever who ended the season with an ERA of 6.09 – relievers are weird guys.
There’s also the matter of Davis’ health. Davis began to deal with arm injuries in the second half of 2016, with his fastball velocity dropping as he tried to battle through the injury until the Royals sent him to the DL twice in the span of a month midway through the season. That sort of an injury can be terrifying for a 31-year-old reliever, even one as dominant as Davis has been in his career. If Davis is ineffective or goes down to injury, Hector Rondon would likely end up in the closer’s role for the Cubs, a sentence which is sure to send a shiver down the spine of all Chicago fans.
Even in that scenario, the Cubs would probably just trade one of their still numerous top prospects for Edwin Diaz or something and go back to being immortal within seconds. But one can dream.