MLB Team X-Factors for 2017, Part V: NL Central

Cincinnati Reds – Brandon Finnegan and Cody Reed

In a sense, choosing an x-factor that is going to actually change anything for the Reds in 2017 is nearly as challenging as the Cubs; just for the exact opposite reason. Barring a minor miracle (or whatever was in the water in 2015, Year of the Anti-Projections), the Reds are going to be irrelevant from Day One of 2017. FanGraphs Depth Charts has them projected as the third-worst team in baseball, and that somehow feels generous. There’s not a lot to see here right now.

Two of the names that should be watched, however, are Finnegan and Reed. These two represent two of the first pieces to hit the majors from the fire sale that the Reds are likely to be involved in over the next few seasons. These two pitchers were obtained from the Royals when the Reds decided to cash in Johnny Cueto at the 2015 trade deadline. Finnegan was already at the major league level and Reed wasn’t far off; for Reds fans, these two represent the first pieces of the next potential Reds Contending Team.

The two had vastly different 2016 seasons. Finnegan spent the entirety of the season at the big-league level, and he actually had some nice success. The 5’11” lefty threw 172.0 innings and finished the year with an ERA+ of 107 (or an ERA of 3.98, if you prefer). He was second on the team in wins, innings pitched and strikeouts. With Dan Straily (the leader in all three) out of town, Finnegan is the returning ace. There are plenty of questions if even that slightly-above-average season from Finnegan was legitimate, though. Finnegan’s FIP (5.19) and strikeout rate (7.59 K/9) were far from ace level and raised some serious questions heading into 2017.

Which Finnegan is the real Finnegan? (Classic x-factor question.) The Finnegan who threw over 170 innings with a better than average ERA, including a second half in which his ERA was an impressive 2.93? Or the Finnegan who – even in that vaunted second half – posted a 4.45 FIP that showed he may have just been mighty lucky, especially considering the homer-friendly home ballpark in which he makes half his starts?

As for Reed, 2016 didn’t hold many positives. There was the simple fact that he made his MLB debut – a lifetime goal achieved to be sure – but he was properly greeted when he got there, racking up a 7.36 ERA in 47.2 big-league innings. He also sported a less-than-ideal 0-7 win-loss record for those who care about those things. (And, as the man of record, Reed almost certainly cared about that thing.) The numbers suggest that Reed was a bit unlucky (6.06 FIP, 4.29 xFIP), but anyone who saw him pitch knows he has a lot of work to do.

And that’s alright. Reed is still not 24 years old, and he is less than 50 innings into what might end up as a nice career. He was a top-100 prospect in baseball each of the last two seasons, and he should get a legitimate chance at the full-time rotation in 2017. For what it’s worth (maybe a little bit more than nothing with a young player), Reed has looked excellent this spring, striking out 20 batters in 16.2 innings with an ERA of 3.24 and a WHIP of 0.96.

For Reds fans to start to have faith in the rebuilding process guys like Finnegan and Reed will have to start producing in 2017 and beyond.