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MLB: The 5 Best Free Agent Signings So Far

By Bobby Mueller

Apr 13, 2017; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Eric Thames hits a solo home run against the Cincinnati Reds during the fifth inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 13, 2017; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Eric Thames hits a solo home run against the Cincinnati Reds during the fifth inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports /
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Apr 25, 2017; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Eric Thames (7) celebrates in the dugout after hitting a 2-run homer in the sixth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports. MLB.
Apr 25, 2017; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Eric Thames (7) celebrates in the dugout after hitting a 2-run homer in the sixth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports. MLB. /

1B Eric Thames, Milwaukee Brewers

3-years, $16 million

1.8 FanGraphs WAR

1.7 Baseball-Reference WAR

130 PA, 31 R, 12 HR, 22 RBI, 0 SB, .324/.438/.731

Thames has slowed down a bit since he began the season with 11 homers in his first 20 games. Over his last 10 games, he’s hit a much more down to earth .237/.356/.368. Overall, though, he’s been worth roughly 1.8 Wins Above Replacement. At the free agent rate of $8 million/1 WAR, Thames has given the Brewers almost the full value of his three-year contract in just 30 games.

The story of Eric Thames has been well chronicled. He’s been compared to another player with big-time power, Cecil Fielder, who also struggled in MLB, then had success overseas before coming back to MLB and taking his game to a whole different level. In Fielder’s case, his success came in Japan. Thames did his overseas work in the Korean Baseball Organization, where he averaged 41 homers and 127 RBI across three seasons.

With so few players having made the jump from the KBO to MLB, it was hard to know what to expect from Thames this year, but he had some optimistic projections. The FanGraphs Depth Charts, which uses a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections, with a manual playing time adjustment, projected Thames to hit 30 home runs in 136 games, with a .259/.335/.503 batting line. That line and the expected fielding ability of Thames was projected to be worth 1.8 WAR, which is what he’s already accomplished after one month.

Of course, baseball is all about adjustments. Thames exploded on the league with that monster start, but has slowed down over the last couple weeks. He’s likely to settle in and have a solid season from this point forward, but there’s always the possibility he could be Chris Shelton 2.0. Back in 2006, Shelton started the year with nine home runs in his first 13 games. He had an insane .471/.500/1.216 batting line. Over the rest of the season, he hit .242/.316/.348, with seven home runs in 102 games.

I don’t think Thames will follow that pattern. He’s slowed down lately, but he’ll adjust and the pitchers will adjust back and the dance will continue. Thames has shown enough over the last few years in Korea and in his first month back in the U.S. to expect he’ll remain on the list of top five free agent signings at the end of the season.

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