Boston Red Sox Closer Craig Kimbrel Is Enjoying A 2017 Resurgence
Craig Kimbrel struggled compared to his previous levels after leaving the Atlanta Braves. Is his resurgence in 2017 for the Boston Red Sox for real?
Before he was a member of the Boston Red Sox, Craig Kimbrel was a Southern boy, drafted out of Wallace State Community College in the 3rd round in 2008 (after they drafted him in the 33rd round in 2007). He ascended quickly through the minor leagues, jumping all the way to high-A in his draft season of 2008 while striking out 56 in 35 1/3 innings.
In 2009, Kimbrel and his trademark heavy lean-in toward the plate for the sign before his pitch was knocking on the door of the big leagues, jumping up all the way to AAA ball, combining to strike out 103 batters in just 60 minor league innings.
He reached the majors in 2010 for a 21-game audition that turned the baseball world on its collective ear after dominating AAA. All told between AAA and the majors in 2010, he posted a 1.30 ERA and struck out 123 hitters in 76 1/3 innings.
Kimbrel took over closing duties for the Atlanta Braves in 2011, and he began what was considered one of the most elite runs a closer has ever been on. By 2014, he had saved the most games for any closer over his first five seasons by over 25 more than the closest competition, and his first year was just a brief audition.
Of the 80 pitchers in the history of the game that have saved 150 or more games, Kimbrel still ranks first in ERA, FIP, ERA+, and 2nd in strikeout rate and save percentage, even after a few down years since leaving the Braves.
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Post-Braves “Struggles”
While many players would be ecstatic over a combined 2.96 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 70 saves, 11.33 BB%, and 37.04% K% line that Kimbrel produced for the San Diego Padres and Boston Red Sox in 2015 and 2016, those players also aren’t coming off of a run where over four seasons, Kimbrel AVERAGED a 1.51 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 46 saves, 8.85% walk rate, and 41.92% strikeout rate.
After his trade brought in a haul to first the Atlanta Braves and then the San Diego Padres after trading him, it was understandable that the Boston Red Sox fans had bigger expectations of their $13M+ closer and were wondering if he’d end up seeing the club buy out his $13M 2018 option rather than pay him and try their chances either on the free agent market or with an in-house option.
2017 Resurgence
Kimbrel has always thrown the same primary two pitches, a fastball and a hard curve ball. His curve registered beyond what PitchF/X was prepared for in early going, as it classified his pitch as a slider, but he’s been more accurately tracked since.
In looking at pure velocity on his pitches, you see minimal difference. In 2014, he was throwing 93.7-99.9 MPH with his fastball and averaging 97 while throwing 79.8-89.3 on his curve, averaging 85.3. Over 2015-2016, those numbers stayed largely the same, with 97.3 MPH fastball averages and 86.8 and 86.6 curve averages in the two seasons. His 2017 resurgence statistically has come from a fastball averaging 98 and curve averaging 86.6, so there’s not much there.
Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs put together a grouping of tremendous charts to explain what the reason for Kimbrel’s resurgence truly is – he’s pounding the ever-loving snot out of the strike zone.
In all seriousness, Kimbrel did deal with a knee injury in 2016 before finally succumbing to surgery. It’s very feasible that he’d been pitching with an issue in the knee for some time, but with the knee sore, he was opening up in his delivery earlier, causing his fastball to drift up and toward a right handed hitter and his curve to drift down and in on a lefty hitter, both end up in significant sweet spots for most major league hitters.
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This season with the knee healthy, his command is pin point, and he has seen his horizontal movement on his pitches come right back to the levels he was seeing in 2014 and before. So, if you add increased control, healthy joints, and ridiculous velocity and movement within the strike zone all together, you get what is shaping up to be an historic season for Craig Kimbrel at the back end of the Boston Red Sox bullpen.