The St. Louis Cardinals released reliever Jonathan Broxton yesterday. Was this the right move?
We’ve reached the point in the baseball season where it’s no longer early. If you’re struggling, it’s a problem and you can certainly lose your job to someone on the bench or even a minor leaguer. For former St. Louis Cardinals reliever Jonathan Broxton, this was the case as the club released the right-handed reliever yesterday and with it ate $3.75 million this year.
Struggling #STLCards reliever Jonathan Broxton has been released, GM John Mozeliak said. GANT to STL
— Benjamin Hochman (@hochman) May 31, 2017
Did the Cardinals make the right move in just eating the money?
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Broxton thus far this year was 0-1 with a 6.89 ERA in 15.2 innings. Opponents were hitting .343 against him with lefties hitting a whopping .500 off of him so far this season. To say they weren’t getting their bang for their buck with numbers like that is probably a bit of an understatement.
But, is there something more to the numbers that could say that Broxton’s production could start to come down and back to more of his normal production levels?
Well, the BABIP for one thing. Lefties have a BABIP of .625 against him this year. There’s no way over a full season that can continue. His FIP of 4.76 and XFIP of 4.63, while not great by any stretch, show that he’s a little bit better than what the numbers indicate.
His velocity is down slightly this year on his fastball from 94.4 to 94.2 MPH per Fangraphs. His slider is the same while his changeup is slightly down from 88.1 to 87.7. His fastball usage, however, is up over 65% which is his highest since 2014. His K/9 rate is up this year from 8.46 to 9.49. However, his walk rate has gone up way too much. It’s at 14.1% this year, which is the highest of his career since 2011.
Broxton’s contact rate against inside the zone is down, however, opposing hitters are swinging much more in the zone against him.
I understand why the St. Louis Cardinals released him, however, I believe that once he clears waivers, someone, like the New York Mets who need bullpen help, will take a flyer on the 32 year old for the major league minimum. Sometimes, guys just need a change of scenery and you build bullpens with power and on the cheap, which Broxton fits.
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If Broxton can bring down the walks (his walk rate went from 3.56 last year to 6.32 this year), he can still be a serviceable arm and if he does, maybe the St. Louis Cardinals regret the move.