MLB teams positioning themselves for pursuit of Shohei Otani

Recent trades involving international spending slots suggest that MLB teams could be gearing up for a chance to sign Japanese star Shohei Otani.

If you’ve followed the recent flurry of MLB trade activity, you may have noticed several deals involving international signing slots. It’s easy to overlook these seemingly minor transactions, but the growing trend could reflect a number of teams preparing for a potential run at an overseas superstar.

Shohei Otani is a name even more casual baseball fans have probably heard at least once or twice by this point. The 23-year-old phenom has made headlines in his native Japan and abroad for his skill on the mound and at the plate.

Last season Otani was legitimately among the best hitters and pitchers in Nippon Professional Baseball. He posted a 1.86 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 140 innings for the Nippon Ham Fighters. And if that wasn’t enough, he slashed .322/.416/.588 with 22 home runs and 67 RBI in 104 games as a designated hitter.

An ankle injury has limited Otani’s playing time in 2017, but that has done little to dull MLB clubs’ interest in someday adding the intriguing talent. The 6-foot-4 right-hander holds the Japanese record for fastest pitch at 101.9 mph, and has drawn comparisons to Justin Verlander. Some have even speculated whether he could become a true two-way threat in the United States, filling the DH spot on days he doesn’t pitch.

However, the updated international signing rules established in the new collective bargaining agreement have changed the game when it comes to Otani and other international players. Baseball America‘s Ben Badler provides a comprehensive walk-through here. Basically, MLB teams now have a strict limit on how much they can spend on international free agents without being penalized. Players used to be exempted from such spending limits when they turned 23, but the new system raises that threshold to age 25.

Pundits have debated whether this stipulation means we won’t see Otani in Major League Baseball until the 2020 season. (He turns 25 in July 2019.) If he waits, he will have no restrictions on his earning potential, and it’s likely his deal would break records. Others suggest he could forgo the extra money and take the leap to the game’s biggest stage as early as this winter.

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It appears MLB teams are preparing either way. Clubs can trade international signing slots, allowing them to expand their original bonus pools by a certain amount. The way some teams have been adding international money of late, it’s not a stretch to imagine they want to be able to offer as large a signing bonus to Otani as possible in the event he gets posted this offseason.

The Yankees always receive a lot of attention in these types of situations, and the famously big-spending club did use the trade market last week to increase their bonus pool. They gained $1.5 million from the A’s in the Sonny Gray deal, and the Orioles sent them additional signing slots in exchange for righty Yefry Ramirez.

Some thought the Rangers would keep Yu Darvish in an effort to woo Otani (the two are friends and train together) but Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggests Texas’ trade of their former ace could actually strengthen their pursuit of his countryman. The Rangers are unlikely to bring the soon-to-be 31-year-old Darvish back with a huge contract offer over the winter.

Texas acquired $500,000 of international signing money from the Orioles yesterday in exchange for minor league infielder Brallan Perez, lending credibility to the notion that Otani is their target. The O’s, meanwhile, continue to shed their bonus pool: Ownership prevents them from playing in the international sandbox.

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There are no guarantees when it comes to Otani. It’s anyone’s guess whether he will even be made available to sign this offseason, or if he will instead choose to wait in hopes of an immense payday down the road. But he is the kind of rare talent MLB teams will make contingency plans for, even without any assurances.