AL Wild Card: Who has the best remaining schedule?

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The remaining schedule for each AL Wild Card hopeful will play a big role in determining who makes the playoffs and who doesn’t.

The MLB season is just past the three-quarters point and there are still nine American League teams within five games of the two wild card spots. It’s even tighter at the top. The Yankees have a 3.5-game lead over the Twins for the first wild card spot, but it’s a dogfight for the second spot, as five teams are within a game of each other.

With such a tight race, there are many things that could happen to alter the final outcome. Key players could get hurt, like Miguel Sano of the Twins right now, and teams can get on a good run to push ahead of the pack. The Texas Rangers, for example, have won seven of their last 10 games, including their last two games against another wild card hopeful, the Los Angeles Angels.

This is how the race shapes up, with win-loss records, where they are in the wild race and run differential for each team (run differential is an important marker of how good a team is).

68-58 New York Yankees (1^st wild card, +124 run differential)

65-62 Minnesota Twins (2^nd wild card, -37 run differential)

64-62 Kansas City Royals (0.5 GB, -26 run differential)

65-63 Los Angeles Angels (0.5 GB, 0 run differential)

65-63 Seattle Mariners (0.5 GB, -12 run differential)

64-63 Texas Rangers (1.0 GB, +33 run differential)

63-66 Tampa Bay Rays (3.0 GB, -14 run differential)

62-65 Baltimore Orioles (3.0 GB, -44 run differential)

60-67 Toronto Blue Jays (5.0 GB, -83 run differential)

The Yankees, with that big run differential and a 3.5-game lead over the Twins for the first wild card, are in the driver’s seat. The Rangers also have a positive run differential, which suggests they are better than their record shows.

Another big factor is the remaining schedule for each team. One of these teams will play 67 percent of their remaining games at home, while others will play around 44 percent of their games in front of the hometown fans. Most teams have a better record at home than on the road, so where they play their remaining games is likely to play a big factor in determining the outcome of this wild-and-wooly wild card race. Let’s take a look at the contenders.

68-58 New York Yankees (1^st wild card, +124 run differential)

With by far the best run differential of these teams, and a 3.5 game lead over the rest of the pack, the New York Yankees are the clear front runners. They also play 24 of their remaining 36 games at home, where they have a .614 winning percentage. Even though they’ll likely have some players suspended after the brawl-filled game against the Tigers on Thursday, it would be very surprising for the Yankees to miss the playoffs.

65-62 Minnesota Twins (2^nd wild card, -37 run differential)

I broke down each team’s remaining schedule by weighting their opponent’s record at home and on the road. By my calculations, the Twins have the easiest remaining schedule of any of these wild card contenders. They have five series remaining at Target Field and the teams they face all have below .500 records on the road. Three of those teams—Chicago White Sox, San Diego Padres, and Detroit Tigers—are below .400 on the road. Their away games are tougher, but the Twins have also been better on the road than at home this year. Even with Miguel Sano on the DL, the Twins’ schedule should help keep them in the hunt right down to the wire.

64-62 Kansas City Royals (0.5 GB, -26 run differential)

The Royals have a couple things going for them as far as their schedule is concerned. They play the Chicago White Sox six more times and the White Sox have by far the worst record in the American League. Those are games they need to win. They also have seven more games against the team just a half-game ahead of them, the Minnesota Twins. Their four-game series from September 7-10 at Kauffman Stadium will be key for both contenders.

65-63 Los Angeles Angels (0.5 GB, 0 run differential)

The Angels’ remaining schedule features games almost exclusively against teams in the AL West. They face the Astros nine more times and the A’s, Mariners, and Rangers six more times each. The Angels are 25-24 against the AL West this year. They’ll need to up their game to seize a wild card spot, particularly in the nine games remaining against the Astros, who have the best record in the AL. The Angels’ non-AL West games are three at home versus Cleveland and four on the road versus the White Sox.

65-63 Seattle Mariners (0.5 GB, -12 run differential)

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By my calculations, the Mariners have the toughest remaining schedule of these wild card contenders. Their road games are particularly tough, starting with three against the Yankees this weekend, then three against the Orioles after. The Yankees have a .614 home winning percentage. The Orioles are at .594.

After nine games at home against their AL West rivals—Oakland, Houston, and Los Angeles—the Mariners head to Texas for four games against the Rangers and three against the Astros. Their final two series are against the A’s and Angels, which will be an interesting series if both teams remain in the hunt.

64-63 Texas Rangers (1.0 GB, +33 run differential)

Only the Twins and Royals have an easier remaining schedule than the Rangers, when home/away records are taken into account. The Rangers play most of their games against AL West opponents and get to face the A’s in 10 of their remaining 35 games. The A’s have the second-worst record in the AL and Texas has won six of their first nine games against them so far. The Rangers can also take out a couple teams ahead of them in the standings when they play six more games against the Angels and seven more against the Mariners.

63-66 Tampa Bay Rays (3.0 GB, -14 run differential)

The Rays have the second-most-difficult remaining schedule and the lowest percentage of home games remaining. Their road games are particularly tough. Not only do the Rays struggle on the road (.468 winning percentage), five of their six remaining road series are against teams with a .538 home winning percentage or better. The schedule gets particularly hairy beginning with their series with the Red Sox in Fenway Park that starts on September 8. After three with the Sox, they come home to host the Yankees, Red Sox, and Cubs, then go on the road to Baltimore and New York. That’s a tough stretch in the heart of September.

62-65 Baltimore Orioles (3.0 GB, -44 run differential)

Baltimore has been at their best against the AL East this year, with a 27-22 record against their division foes. They’ll need to keep that going if they want to make the playoffs because 27 of their 35 remaining games are against the Red Sox (6 games), Yankees (7 games), Rays (7 games), and Blue Jays (7 games). The Orioles have been terrible on the road this year (.381 winning percentage) and have six more road series, all against teams over .500 at home.

60-67 Toronto Blue Jays (5.0 GB, -83 run differential)

The Blue Jays are five games out and with the worst run differential of these contending teams and their remaining schedule won’t help them much, particularly in the next two weeks. The Jays face the Twins and Red Sox at home, then the Orioles and Red Sox on the road. If they make it through that stretch, it gets easier for a few weeks, but they finish with three game sets against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Yankees again. If this were a horse race, the Blue Jays would be a couple lengths behind and fading fast.

Next: Pujols on track for 100 RBI, negative WAR

Based on the remaining schedules for all of these wild card potentials, the Yankees, Twins, Royals, and Rangers have an advantage over the rest of the pack. If I were a betting man, I’d put my money on the Yankees and Twins to take the two wild card spots, with the Royals, Rangers, and Angels just on the outside looking in. It’s a much more difficult road to the playoffs for the Mariners, Orioles, Blue Jays, and Rays.

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