Tampa Bay Rays: Looking into the Future for Alex Cobb
By Tim Boyle
Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Alex Cobb is in the final year of arbitration and eligible for free agency this winter. What does the future hold for his MLB career?
Over the last few seasons, the Tampa Bay Rays have developed several notable young pitchers. Last year, the official dismantling of the rotation took place. Matt Moore was traded to the San Francisco Giants and Drew Smyly received a similar fate in a deal that made him a member of the Seattle Mariners. In the case of Alex Cobb, his departure from Tampa Bay could happen as a result of free agency.
According to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, the Rays aren’t going to let Cobb simply walk away. They are hoping to sign him to a long-term deal, but face the usual hurdle of paying their players in a small market.
Cobb has enjoyed a solid career with the Rays over parts of six seasons. Unfortunately, injuries played a role in many of those seasons. His career-high 27 starts is an underwhelming total. He’ll break that total this season, but may fall just shy of 30 starts.
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The biggest concern for Cobb is the fact that he missed all of 2015 due to Tommy John Surgery. The lengthy recovery limited him to only five starts in 2016 before returning in 2017 for what has been a nice bounce back season.
Through his first 26 appearances this year, Cobb is 10-9 with a 3.64 ERA. He’s allowing walks at a career-low 2.2 per nine but also striking out batters far less. Opponents are only fanning 6.3 times per nine innings, a significantly lower total from how many strike three calls he was racking up during his best years in 2013 and 2014. In each of those seasons, Cobb averaged more than eight strikeouts per nine innings.
For all of the worries, Cobb is a valuable pitcher both to the Rays and any other team who might inquire. So, it makes sense why Tampa Bay would be willing to lock him down to a contract before he hits the open market. Pitching is a premium service. If healthy, Cobb has at least a few more productive years in his arm.
Cobb will enter a free agent class with some notably better pitchers available. Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish, and Masahiro Tanaka (pending his opt out) take over the first tier. Cobb falls somewhere in the back of the second tier alongside guys like Marco Estrada and Lance Lynn.
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As the current team leader in wins with the best ERA of any starter with at least 15 starts, Cobb has been a dependable player for the 2017 Rays. If this can translate into a hometown discount, there’s a good chance he stays. Otherwise, the free market will come calling and Cobb should spend his 2018 campaign in another city.