The five most surprising 20-HR guys of 2017
Based on past MLB history, these five guys are the most surprising players to hit the 20-HR mark in 2017.
In a year in which home runs are flying out of ballparks at a rate higher than ever before, it’s not surprising that there are some players having career years when it comes to the big fly. Giancarlo Stanton is finally having the year everyone’s been waiting for. He’s been healthy enough to stay in the lineup almost every day this year and has a best-in-baseball 54 home runs. Some are saying he should be the true home run king if he passes the 61 home runs hit by Roger Maris in 1961.
New York Yankees rookie Aaron Judge is leading the American League in homers and recently passed Wally Berger and Frank Robinson to move into second all-time in home runs in a season by a rookie. Another rookie, Cody Bellinger, is getting close to the 38 home runs hit by Berger and Robinson in their rookie years. He’s sitting on 37. By seasons’ end, Judge and Bellinger could hold the second and third spots for home runs in a season by a rookie.
Stanton, Judge, and Bellinger are having great seasons, but all have exhibited good power before. Stanton has hit 22 or more home runs in all eight seasons he’s been in the big leagues and twice hit 37 in a season. Judge is a huge man who hit 19 home runs in 93 games in Triple-A just last season. Bellinger hit 30 home runs in the minor leagues in 2015 and 26 in 2016. These guys have big home run totals, but it shouldn’t be a total shocker to serious baseball fans.
The real shockers are the guys who haven’t shown much power before, yet are suddenly hitting home runs at a rate we’ve never seen from them. That’s the focus here. These are the five most surprising 20-HR guys in 2017:
Number 5: Marwin Gonzalez, 21 home runs
Coming into this season, Marwin Gonzalez had played five seasons for the Houston Astros as a useful player who could handle multiple positions but wasn’t a threat with the bat. He was never a full-time starter, although he did get 518 plate appearances as a super utility guy last year. His career batting line before 2017 was .257/.298/.389 and he averaged one home run every 44 plate appearances.
This year, Gonzalez is hitting a sizzling .294/.366/.517 and already has a career-high 21 home runs. He’s hit home runs almost twice as often as he had in the first five years of his career (once every 22 plate appearances in 2017) and will set career-highs in most offensive categories.
One of the big improvements Gonzalez has made is his walk rate, which is more than double the rate he posted in the previous two seasons. He’s also hit much better left-handed than he has in his career. The switch-hitter has a career wRC+ from the left side of 101, which is just one percent better than league average when league and ballpark effects are taken into account. From the right side, he has a 95 wRC+, which is five percent below average. In 2017, he’s been slightly better from the right side (101 wRC+), but much better from the left side (150 wRC+).
As good as Gonzalez has been this season, he has struggled lately. Over his last 22 games, he’s hitting .207/.253/.329, with just a single home run in 88 plate appearances. The Astros are hoping the new-and-improved 2017 version of Marwin Gonzalez comes back before the playoffs get started.
Number 4: Jose Ramirez, 26 home runs
Ramirez came up with Cleveland in 2013 for a cup of coffee that consisted of just 14 plate appearances. Over the next two seasons, he was a .237/.295/.342 hitter who could come off the bench at shortstop or second base, but didn’t contribute much to the offense. Then he had a nice breakout last season when he hit .312/.363/.462 as a full-time player.
If Ramirez had just continued playing as well as he did last year over the rest of his career, he’d be a very valuable player going forward. Instead, he took his game to another level again this year. His batting average and on-base percentage are very close to what he did last year, but he’s bumped up his slugging percentage by more than 100 points. A big part of his increase in slugging has been the 26 home runs he’s hit in 139 games so far. He also has a league-leading 50 doubles.
After hitting one home run every 66 plate appearances in the first 332 games of his career, Ramirez is averaging one home run every 23 plate appearances this year. His impressive play has put him in the second tier among AL MVP candidates if you look at FanGraphs WAR, after the top tier of Jose Altuve, Aaron Judge, and Mike Trout. His teammate on Cleveland, Francisco Lindor, has greater name recognition, but Ramirez has been right there with Lindor in value this year. His surprising surge in home runs is a big part of it.
Number 3: Tim Beckham, 21 homers
It was so long ago that Beckham was a top prospect that even avid baseball fans likely forgot about him. In 2009 (#28) and 2010 (#67), Beckham made the Baseball America Top 100 list, but he hasn’t made their top 100 in any year since. Through nine seasons at all levels of the minor leagues, he hit .267/.332/.380, with just 35 home runs, or one every 83 plate appearances.
Beckham started getting significant playing time in the big leagues in 2015 and hit for more power than he had before (.429 slugging in 223 PA), but with a brutal .274 OBP. The next year was more of the same (.434 SLG, .300 OBP in 215 PA). At this point, it didn’t look like Beckham would be much more than a utility infielder.
Then 2017 happened. Beckham has 21 homers in 536 plate appearances this year (one every 25 plate appearances) and has been a three-win player. He was solid with the Rays to start the year, but has really taken off since being traded to the Orioles at the trade deadline. As an Oriole, Beckham has hit .331/.366/.564, with nine of his 21 home runs in just 191 plate appearances.
Number 2: Yonder Alonso. 25 home runs
Before this year, the problem with Alonso was that he had difficulty hitting the ball yonder with any regularity. He had a nice pedigree, but didn’t have the power teams look for in a first baseman or corner outfielder. Alonso was named to the Baseball America Top 100 four straight years from 2009 to 2012, with a high ranking of 33rd in 2012. He did a good job of getting on base in the minor leagues, with a .372 career minor league OBP, but averaged a home run every 38 plate appearances.
Alonso reached the major leagues with the Padres in 2012 and, for the most part, continued getting on base while still not hitting for much power. Before this year, he never had a season with a slugging percentage over .400 in his big league career. He also averaged a home run every 60 plate appearances, with a career-high of nine long balls in 2012.
Then came 2017, the new “year of the home run.” Alonso has 25 home runs in 483 plate appearances, for an average of one every 19 plate appearances. He’s hitting the ball harder than ever and getting it in the air at rate much higher than he has in his career (43.5 percent this year versus 34.2 percent in his career). We thought we knew who Yonder Alonso was, but he’s made changes this year and is a surprising member of the 20-HR club.
Number 1: Elvis Andrus, 20 homers
Andrus is the most surprising 20-HR guy this year because he had a long track record of single-digit homer seasons. Every year, he would knock out 160 or more hits, steal a bunch of bases, and hit a handful of home runs. He was usually good for 60 to 70 RBI to go with the few homers he hit.
Over the first seven years of his career, Andrus averaged four home runs per season and slugged .347. Last year, he really broke out with a career-high eight home runs. Still, we pretty much knew what to expect from Andrus.
That’s all changed this year. Andrus is approaching a career high in hits and runs and has already zoomed past his career best in RBI and homers. Before this season, he hit one home run every 149 plate appearances. This year, he’s hit one every 31 plate appearances.
Andrus’ 30.8 percent hard hit percentage is also a career high, beating the 27.1 percent rate in each of the last two years. He’s also hitting more fly balls than he usually does and pulling the ball slightly more often than he has the past couple seasons. The biggest change is that his 12.7 percent HR/FB rate is more than double his previous career high for a season.
Next: Cardinals hitting stride as October approaches
It will be interesting to see if Andrus and the other surprising guys on the 20-HR list continue their newly powerful ways next season. In a previous “year of the homer,” back in 1987, Wade Boggs busted out with 24 home runs to set a career high. He then went back to being the single-digit homer guy he’d been before that one big year. We’ll have to see what happens with the guys on this list.