Arizona Diamondbacks: Wild Card success comes down to execution

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies square off at Chase Field in a single elimination game.

For all the roster construction, real and abstract numbers, metrics and allegiance to the growing trend of analytics, the bottom line is that the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies are locked into the moment for the National League Wild Card game.

There’s little time to think, and no margin for error.

In this single elimination game, Rockies’ third baseman Nolan Arenado clearly put the event in perspective. Arenado, who finished with a .309 batting average, 37 home runs and 130 RBIs, simply told Call to the Pen before Colorado’s workout Tuesday in Chase Field, “both teams are dropped into a game-seven right away. You need to be prepared for anything.”

Who will make the least number of mistakes, who can capitalize on physical and mental errors and who can take and maintain command will likely decide the outcome.

From a realistic standpoint, Arizona starter Zack Grienke told Call to the Pen prior to the Diamondbacks’ workout Tuesday in Chase Field, that all he can do is prepare to the fullest.

"“I feel prepared, and feel I as good as I can be,” he said. “The only thing you do is prepare and make good pitches. You have to keep making good pitches, and that’s my mind set going into this game.”"

Why the Diamondbacks will win

Over the course of the season, the Diamondbacks found ways to win baseball games. They started their home schedule when Chris Owings’ walk-of single defeated the San Francisco Giants, and ended when David Peralta walked with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth to beat the Giants by one run one the final home game of the season.

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In between, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb and J.D. Martinez hit a combined 95 homers and drove in 290 runs. With Arizona alone, Martinez hit 29 bombs (45 for the season) and drove in 65 runs (104 for the season) in 62 games. Overall, the Diamondbacks finished seventh in the NL in team batting, but led the NL in doubles, triples and fourth in homers.

On the bases, the Diamondbacks are daring and force teams into physical and mental errors. First base coach Dave McKay engineers an effective running game, and often creates defensive schemes which results in outs.

Greinke went 13-1 at home in 2017, and set-up reliever Archie Bradley (3-3, 1.73 ERA) along with closer Fernando Rodney (39 saves) anchored the back end of the bullpen.

At Chase Field, the Diamondbacks are formidable, and their 52 wins at home was second best in the majors. The Dodgers took 57 games in Dodger Stadium.

In addition to home field advantage, the Diamondbacks should play before a very loud, boisterous and supportive crowd. This Wild Card game was sold out in one hour, and that prompted Paul Goldschmidt to tell Call to Pen before Tuesday’s workout that, by the end of the season, “you could see the fans and the city get excited.”

Why the Rockies will win

Aside from fielding a formidable batting order, starting pitcher Jon Gray holds an important hand. With a fast ball clocked consistently in the mid-to upper 90s and nasty breaking pitches, Gray has emerged as a rising star.

Colorado Rockies

In his last start against the Diamondbacks in Chase Field on Sept. 12, he recorded a 4-2 win with 10 strike-outs and no walks. Telling Call to the Pen before Tuesday’s workout that his breaking pitch effectively kept hitters off balanced in that game, Gray closed out a 10-4 (3.67 ERA) season with four wins and a no-decision in his final five starts.

While Martinez is 2-for-6 with two homers off of Gray, location for the vast majority of Martinez’s homers usually travels to center and right center field. To gain trajectory on his swing, Martinez’s arm extension remains a significant factor for his numbers.

To effectively take both Martinez and Paul Goldschmidt out of the game, Gray will pound his fast ball high and inside to both hitters. That will prevent Martinez from extending his arms, and likely results in a plethora of swings-and-missies.

At the plate, the Rockies will likely be patient with Greinke and wait for the slightest of mistakes. Because Greinke’s fast ball velocity is around 90 miles-per-hour, he cannot afford the slightest margin of error. If Greinke misses with his fast ball and his breaking pitches, which resulted in several swings-and-misses, the Rockies will easily make Greinke pay for his mistakes.

If that happens, the Rockies will hit several home runs early, and Greinke will exit by the fifth inning.

Monthly honor

Outfielder J.D. Martinez was named the National League player-of-the-month for September.

For September, Martinez hit .404 with 26 runs, eight doubles, 16 homers and 36 RBIs over 24 games. He is the first Arizona player to claim a player-of-the-month since Martin Prado in Ausgust, 2013.

Following his back-to-back weekly honor as player-of-the week for Sept 11 and Sept 18, Martinez became the first player in the history of the award (since 1973) to claim four weekly awards in a single season.

Next: Greinke to get start in Wild Card Game

The American League player-of-the-month for September was Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees.