Kansas City Royals: 2017 season review and offseason preview

What went right, what went wrong, and what are the top priorities for the Kansas City Royals this offseason?

The 2017 season will be remembered as the final year together for the core group of players who brought a second world championship to Kansas City. This group includes Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, and Alcides Escobar, all of whom are free agents. They’ve been with the Royals since 2011 and grew up together in the big leagues as the team went from a 71-91 record in 2011 to back-to-back World Series appearances in 2014-15 to the 80-82 record they had this year.

It was well known heading into this season that this would likely be the last hurrah for this group. As the season played out, everyone wondered whether GM Dayton Moore would allow them one last run for the playoffs or trade one or more of them during the season? A brutal 7-16 April seemed to signal that it was time to move on, but Moore stood pat.

The Royals improved with a 15-14 May and an impressive 17-9 June. After winning five of their first six games in July, they were 44-40 and just a half-game behind Cleveland in the AL Central. They also held the second wild card spot. There was hope in Kansas City. Perhaps there was another playoff run left in these Royals?

They stayed close through July, but it wasn’t easy. At one point they lost seven of eight games and fell two games below .500. Then they won nine straight games, three of which ended with walk-off hits. By the time the trade deadline came around, they were still in second place, just two games behind Cleveland, and still holding the second wild card spot. Hoz, Moose, LoCain, and Esky would make one last run together.

August would be their downfall. They went 10-18 while Cleveland went 19-9. By the end of the month, the Royals were 11 games out in the AL Central. The wild card was still in play, but they would need to jump over five teams to snag one of the two spots. They finished out the season by winning 15 of their final 30 games and finished third in their division, 22 games behind Cleveland and five games out of a wild card spot.

Rather than try to get something by trading one of the core four prior to free agency, Dayton Moore gave it one last shot. He’d seen this team surprise everyone before and hoped they could do it again. Ultimately, it didn’t work out, but Moore put together a championship team before and perhaps he can do it again.

Let’s take a look at what went right, what went wrong, and the team’s top offseason priorities.

What Went Wrong

The Royals signed Brandon Moss to a two-year, $12 million contract in January after he hit 28 homers in 128 games with the Cardinals in 2016. He was unable to replicate his numbers this year, and was particularly bad at getting on base. He hit .207/.279/.428 and finished below replacement-level (0.5 WAR).

Shortstop Alcides Escobar played all 162 games for the second year in a row and was good on defense. He was terrible with the bat, though, hitting .250/.272/.357. He’s never been very good at hitting, but he used to at least steal an occasional base. This year, he had just four steals.

The painful demise of Alex Gordon’s career hit rock bottom in 2017. Gordon was a 6-WAR player in the Royals’ first World Series year, back in 2014. That year, he won his fourth straight Gold Glove award and was in the midst of a three-year run of making the AL All-Star team each year.

He was good when he was healthy in 2015, but only played 104 games that season. Last year was ugly and this year was uglier. He hit .208/.293/.315, meaning he didn’t hit for average, couldn’t get on base, and had very little power. That .315 slugging percentage was the worst among the 144 players who had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. To make matters worse, he was making $16 million and is still owed $20 million for each of the next two seasons plus a $4 million buyout for the 2020 season.

Ian Kennedy signed a five-year, $70 million contract with the Royals prior to the 2016 season and had an 11-win season with a 3.68 ERA. His FIP was 4.67, which was a red flag for what was to come. This year, he went 5-13 with a 5.38 ERA and even worse 5.61 FIP. He was below replacement-level and has plenty of money still coming his way over the next three years.

Fresh off a 15-10, 3.83 ERA season with the World Champion Chicago Cubs, Jason Hammel signed a free agent contract with the Royals in February. He went 8-13 and had a 5.29 ERA. It should be noted that his FIP was 4.48 in 2016 and 4.37 in 2017, so his underlying performance wasn’t that different based on the three things a pitcher has the most control over (strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed). He was fortunate in 2016 (.267 BABIP allowed, 76 percent Left On Base percentage) and unfortunate in 2017 (.318 BABIP allowed, 68 percent Left On Base percentage).

In their World Series years, one of the keys to the Royals’ success was the three-headed beast at the back end of the bullpen—Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Kelvim Herrera. Holland was injured and missed the entire 2016 season. He’s with Colorado now. Wade Davis was traded to the Cubs last December. That left Herrera for the closer’s role and he struggled. After three straight seasons with ERAs under 3.00, Herrera had a 4.25 ERA and blew five of his 31 save opportunities. He lost the closer’s job in September.

Top Offseason Priorities

According to CBS Sports, the Royals were right in the middle of the pack in team salary, ranking 15^th in baseball with a payroll of $141 million on Opening Day. Their two highest-salaried players who will be back with the team, Alex Gordon and Ian Kennedy, had bad seasons. Another starting pitcher, Jason Hammel, will make $9 million and also had a rough year.

This is how the lineup and rotation look for 2018 based on their current roster. The salaries are from Cot’s Baseball Contracts at Baseball Prospectus. For players who are arbitration-eligible, I’ve included their projected salaries, which come from MLB Trade Rumors.

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C Salvador Perez, $7.5 million

1B Brandon Moss, $7.25 million

2B Whit Merrifield, pre-arbitration

SS Raul Mondesi, pre-arbitration

3B Cheslor Cuthbert, pre-arbitration

LF Alex Gordon, $20 million

CF Paulo Orlando,

RF Jorge Bonifacio, pre-arbitration

DH Jorge Soler, $4 million

C Drew Butera, $2.3 million

SP Danny Duffy, $14 million

SP Ian Kennedy, $16 million

SP Jason Hammel, $9 milion

SP Nate Karns arbitration-eligible (projected: $1.4 million)

SP Jake Junis, pre-arbitration

RP Kelvim Herrera, arbitration-eligible (projected: $8.3 million)

RP Joakim Soria, $9 million

RP Mike Minor, $10 million option, $1.25 million buyout

RP Brandon Maurer, arbitration-eligible (projected $3.8 million)

Free agents: 1B Eric Hosmer, 3B Mike Moustakas, CF Lorenzo Cain, SS Alcides Escobar, LF Melky Cabrera, SP Jason Vargas, RP Trevor Cahill, RP Peter Moylan

The top priority for the Royals in the offseason is to determine which of their departing free agents should get a Qualifying Offer. They have to make this decision within five days of the end of the World Series. The compensation for the Qualifying Offer this year is $18.1 million, so any player the Royals make the offer to can accept it and make $18.1 million for one year, then become a free agent after the 2018 season.

If the offer is made and the player rejects it, then the Royals will get draft pick compensation if the player signs with another team. Of the Royals departing free agents, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas are slam dunks to get a Qualifying Offer, while Lorenzo Cain is also likely to get one. Melky Cabrera and Trevor Cahill are not eligible because they were not with the Royals the entire season. Peter Moylan won’t get one and neither should Jason Vargas or Alcides Escobar. Vargas won 18 games last year, but his 4.67 FIP and brutal second half make him a risk. As for Escobar, thanks for the memories, but aging shortstops with a career .294 OBP aren’t worth $18.1 million.

Once the offer is extended, the player has 10 days to accept or reject it. With three of the teams top players likely to get a Qualifying Offer, the Royals won’t necessarily know what next year’s team will look like until mid-November. In the meantime, they have to consider the possibility that none of the departing free agents will be back and build a team with that in mind.

Another wild card in the equation is GM Dayton Moore, who is rumored to be a target for the Atlanta Braves General Manager job. When asked during an end-of-year press conference if he would turn down an offer from the Braves, Moore said, “I get the connection there, because that’s where I started in this game. So it’s very natural for someone to ask that question…but again I don’t think it requires me to comment at this point or needs me to comment further.” That’s not exactly a resounding no.

In a Kansas City Star article, Moore spoke about the direction of the team, saying, “We can go one of two ways. We can decide to just gut the team the best we can and save as much money as possible and play for draft picks, and maybe that’s ultimately what we could end up doing. It’s too early to predict that right now.” Gutting the team is one option. Trying to re-shape the team and still compete is another.

If they choose to try to compete next year, then re-signing Eric Hosmer is the top priority for the team. He’ll be just 28 years old and is coming off the best season of his career. The Royals were 13^th in the AL in runs scored last year, so the offense definitely needs a good bat at first base.

The other option is the one Moore mentioned, gut the team and save money for the future. Instead of Moustakas and Escobar, the left side of the infield would be Cuthbert and Mondesi. Soler and Bonifacio would be the young players in the outfield, alongside Alex Gordon and his albatross contract. Prospect Hunter Dozier should be given a shot at playing time. If they go all-in, then trading Danny Duffy and Salvador Perez would bring back the most in terms of prospects.

Next: Girardi leaving the Bronx

Next year’s Royals will be markedly different than this year’s team. This group had a good run that included two World Series appearances and the team’s second World Series title, but back-to-back seasons around .500 and free agent departures mean it’s time to turn the page.