Mashahiro Tanaka’s $67 million opt-out gamble

Masahiro Tanaka has a tough choice to make. Should he stay with the New York Yankees and collect $67 million or opt out and test free agency?

Star pitcher Masahiro Tanaka was the hottest commodity of the 2013-2014 offseason. He boasted a 1.27 ERA and 24-0 record during his final year in Japan. The New York Yankees won the ensuing bidding war for the 25-year-old ace with a seven-year, $155 million offer- the largest MLB contract signed by a Japanese player. But there’s a catch: Tanaka has an opt out following the 2017 season.

Now it’s decision time. Tanaka can stay with the Yankees and make $67 million over the remaining three years of his deal, or he could exercise his opt-out and become a free agent. He’ll need to analyze his value relative to the market and decide if he can earn more money elsewhere, presumably with the help of his agent.

The numbers

Tanaka’s peripherals suggest he’s among the best pitchers in baseball. Among qualified starters, his 25.8 K% was 18th, his 5.5 BB% was 8th, his 49.2 GB% was 12th, and his 3.44 xFIP was 13th. Tanaka also had a 3.66 DRA, Baseball Prospectus’ super-advanced counterpart to ERA and FIP.

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His traditional stats tell a different story. His ERA ballooned to 4.73 in 2017. He surrendered 35 HR, third most in the majors. While he did have a career-best 194 SO, he posted the worst marks of his career in runs allowed (100), hits (180), walks (41), and WHIP (1.239).

However, he ended the season with great success when it counted. He started three games for the Yankees in the postseason against the Cleveland Indians and Houston Astros. In those starts he threw 20 IP, allowing only 12 base runners and a pair of runs to score.

Depending on which metrics you prefer, the story of Tanaka’s 2017 season varies greatly. Here are his year-by-year WARs from each of the three major sites.

Each site calculates WAR for pitchers differently. Baseball Reference uses ERA, Fangraphs uses FIP, and Baseball Prospectus uses DRA. The more advanced stats were much kinder to Tanaka this year, but over his four-year career they come out roughly even.

The arm

Here’s the good news: Tanaka’s secondary pitches are top-notch. Per Brooks Baseball, his splitter garnered a 23.82% whiff rate, and his sliders got whiffs 21.35% of the time. Opposing batters only slugged .357 off the splitter and .371 against the slider. Here he is striking out 15 Toronto Blue Jays in his final regular season start, mostly on secondary pitches.

The bad news: his fastball variations were awful. His fastball, sinker, and cutter all had whiff rate below 9%. The league slugged .515, .634, and .800 against each of those pitches. After a disastrous start to the season he lowered his ERA by nearly two runs by throwing more secondary pitches and fewer fastballs (it had been as high as 6.55 on June 6). Here’s an excruciatingly slow motion video of his fastball, in which you can see how little it moves.

The worst news: Tanaka has had a partially torn UCL since 2014. He’s been able to pitch through it, but it could be a ticking time bomb and require Tommy John surgery at any time. He did make 61 starts over the last two years, but his health and durability will be a question teams have to answer.

The market

In most cases, the point of free agency is for the player to make as much money as possible. Assuming there are a finite amount of teams looking for starting pitching and able to pay for high-end talent, the soon to be 29-year-old Tanaka is competing with the other free agents. If a team offers a big money deal to Yu Darvish, that’s one less potential suitor for Tanaka. Similarly, the most money will be offered to the best pitcher, leaving comparatively less for everyone else. So here’s the competition for our protagonist:

• Yu Darvish, age 31, 19.3 bWAR over five seasons
• Jake Arrieta, age 32, 19.2 bWAR over four seasons including the 2015 Cy Young
• Alex Cobb, age 30, 3.66 ERA over 179.1 IP in 2017
• Lance Lynn, age 31, 3.38 ERA over 977.2 career IP

Spotrac projects Arrieta to be the most valuable amongst this group, with a projected AAV north of $26.6 million. Where would Tanaka fit in the hierarchy of free agent starters? Probably third, behind Darvish and Arrieta. But can he beat the $22.3 million AAV over three years remaining on his Yankees deal? That’s a tough call, and the UCL may prohibit him from getting a longer deal.

The decision

Of course, there could be other factors in play. Perhaps Tanaka doesn’t want to leave New York. The Yankees reached Game 7 of the ALCS this year and are well positioned for a prolonged run of success. They might give him a better chance to win a championship than any other franchise.

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Maybe there’s some other factor we’ll never know. His family may not want to move. Perhaps he doesn’t want to adjust to a new clubhouse culture. Maybe the opposite is true and he hasn’t enjoyed himself in New York for some reason. However, if the choice is solely based on money he has a complex decision that could either gain or cost him millions.