Hall of Fame: Welcoming the new guys to the ballot

The Hall of Fame ballot has 19 newcomers this year, including six starting pitchers, three relievers, and ten position players.

The 2018 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot came out today and has 33 players listed. Fourteen of those players are holdovers from last year, which gives us 19 new names to consider. Among these newcomers are five players with 2000 or more career hits, three players with 400 or more career home runs, one player with 408 stolen bases, and a starting pitcher with 269 wins.

At first base we have two new guys, Jim Thome and Aubrey Huff. Thome and his 612 career home runs (eighth all-time) will get substantial support. He could go in on his first ballot. Aubrey Huff will not. He’s a “one and done” guy, whether he wants to believe it or not.

At second base, Orlando Hudson will get his one chance on the ballot. He had an 11-year career with eight above average seasons. He also made two All-Star teams and won the Gold Glove Award four times. It was a nice career and definitely something to be proud of, but Hudson is not Hall-worthy.

The two new third basemen on the ballot are both very talented players. Chipper Jones has more going for him than Scott Rolen, but Rolen was no slouch. Jones has a career batting line of .303/.401/.529, along with 2726 hits and 468 homers. Based on the Jay Jaffe metric known as JAWS, he ranks sixth among all third baseman in the history of the game. The five above him are Mike Schmidt, Eddie Mathews, Wade Boggs, Adrian Beltre, and George Brett. All are Hall of Famers except Beltre, who is still playing. Like Thome, Jones could be a first-ballot guy.

Four spots below Jones on the JAWS third base ranking is Scott Rolen, which may surprise people because Rolen was not the star that Jones was. Rolen doesn’t have the hitting numbers that Jones does, but he makes up for some of the deficit with his defense. By JAWS and WAR, Rolen is the 10^th best third basemen ever. That’s Hall of Fame worthy.

The most divisive new candidate on the ballot is likely to be shortstop Omar Vizquel, who was a wizard with the glove but didn’t provide much offense. Vizquel supporters will compare him to Ozzie Smith, who is in the Hall of Fame mainly for his glove. People who look at the numbers won’t think he’s even close to a Hall of Famer. By JAWS, there are 41 shortstops higher ranked, including active players Troy Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez.

Moving to the outfield, we find two powerful left fielders, Carlos Lee and Hideki Matsui. Lee has 2273 career hits and 358 career home runs, but he’s basically Aubrey Huff with more playing time. Matsui would need full credit for his 10 seasons in Japan to have a Hall of Fame case. If you combine what he did in Japan and what he did in the U.S., you have a .293/.387/.521 hitter with 508 career homers and 1654 career RBI. Voters won’t do that, though, so Matsui won’t be heading to Cooperstown.

The new group of players has two center fielders, Johnny Damon and Andruw Jones. Damon played 18 seasons for seven different teams but is best known for his time with the Royals, Red Sox, and Yankees. He was a two time All-Star and won the World Series with both the Red Sox and Yankees, which means he was both loved and hated by the fanbase of the longtime rivals. He was also part of one of the funniest plays ever seen on a baseball field when Manny Ramirez cut off his throw from about 20 feet away.

Andruw Jones will be an interesting case. He was so very good in the first dozen years of his career. From 1998 to 2007, he averaged nearly 6 WAR per year. Through his age-30 season, he had 368 career home runs and 1117 RBI. That was his final year with the Atlanta Braves. Then he just lost it. He never played a full season again and averaged just 0.4 WAR per season over the final five seasons of his career.

Starting pitchers make up six of the 19 new players on the ballot. In order of career wins (not career value), they are: Jamie Moyer (269 wins), Livan Hernandez (178 wins), Kevin Millwood (169 wins), Chris Carpenter (144 wins), Johan Santana (139 wins), and Carlos Zambrano (132 wins).

The best of the bunch here is Santana. Despite his relatively short career he leads them all in Wins Above Replacement (WAR, per Baseball-Reference) thanks to a nice stretch of nine seasons during which he averaged 14 wins and a 2.90 ERA. He won two Cy Young Awards and should have won a third. He also finished in the top seven in Cy Young voting six times and received MVP votes three times.

In his nine-year peak from 2002 to 2010, only Roy Halladay was decidedly better than Santana. Outside of those years he provided very little. He was essentially done as a productive major league pitcher after his age 31 season because of arm problems. Santana should get the most Hall of Fame support among these pitchers, but I don’t see him getting particularly close to enshrinement.

This ballot has two pure relievers and a third pitcher who both started and relieved. The high man in saves is Jason Isringhausen, with 300. Brad Lidge and his 225 saves are also on the ballot for the first time. Then there’s Kerry Wood, who started 178 games and relieved in 268. He had 86 wins and 63 saves in his career. These guys had their impressive moments, but they aren’t Hall of Famers.

Next: Indians Mount Rushmore

With the holdovers from last year, this year’s Hall of Fame ballot has plenty of worthy players. A straight JAWS ranking would put Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, and Scott Rolen in the top 10, with Andruw Jones at number 11. Voters don’t go by JAWS, though, so we’ll have to see what they come up with.