Cleveland Indians: Jason Kipnis is the odd man out in 2018
The Cleveland Indians utility man, Jason Kipnis, may be the odd man out in 2018.
The Cleveland Indians are attempting to re-sign free agent slugger Carlos Santana, but have a fallback option such as Matt Adams, Mitch Moreland, and Lucas Duda according to Winter Meetings interviews. Ultimately, they have positional clogs at the other spots due to the rise of their young stars Yandy Diaz and Jose Ramirez.
Jose Ramirez took over second base towards the end of last year, while Yandy Diaz replaced Ramirez talents at third base. With that, Jason Kipnis patrolled center field. However, with a going-to-be healthy Bradley Zimmer, who they look to put back in center field, does that move Kipnis to left?
Well, not so fast. Michael Brantley will also be healthy, or at least that is what the reports are saying, at the start of the year. Manager Terry Francona mentioned in the article, “…I think right now, he’s an outfielder [talking about Brantley].”
If that is the case, where does that leave Kipnis? One can only speculate, but he seems to be the guy who is the odd man out, for now.
Jason Kipnis had a down year last year, and according to Predator Projections for 2018, he is trending down. Never a good sign for a 30-year-old player trying to find a position on a 100+ win team.
Last season was his first season actually to be a worse than the average player. Of course, he was hurt for part of the season, which does play a factor, but he cost the Indians -0.41 wins compared to an average player according to my stats. Compare that to Michael Brantley, who was a positive in the win column as a player, contributing +0.47 wins compared to the average player.
What should they do?
The cost of the Cleveland Indians keeping Jason Kipnis.
Jason Kipnis has been a productive player over the years, but the injury bug caught up with him in 2017. This option is in hopes he has a rebound 2018.
According to Spotrac, Kipnis is set to get paid $13.66 million in 2018 making him on paper the second highest paid player on the club. The rest of his contract looks like this: he is under contract for $14.66 million in 2019 and a team option for 2020 for $16.66 million or a $2.5 million buyout.
As of now, the payroll sits at $92.1 million in 2018, well below the approximately $139 million they spent in 2017, however, there are still five arbitration-eligible player contracts to add in, plus the rest of the roster on the minimum salary. With that, they should be close.
The reason that salary is significant is if the Cleveland Indians have to try to have him fill in a role in 2018, wherever that may be, he is a costly one for the small market club. Especially, for just a super-utility role.
Next season, my Predator Baseball Stats have him bouncing back considerably, but that does not mean he will.
2018 Projection: 5.12 PRI, 0.77 PWAA, .780 OPS, 14.7 HR, 56.3 RBI, and 73.3 Runs.
Ultimately, I think that is a little considerate to say he would be worth 0.77 wins above average, which in monetary value would be 7.22 million dollars.
The big question is where do you play him, and if you are going to keep him, you better play him because he costs big-time money.
How to fit Jason Kipnis in the lineup and on the field in 2018.
First, let’s start this idea of knowing the Cleveland Indians are going to be keeping Jason Kipnis next season. With possible trade idea, on this one assume he is staying.
One possible way is to platoon him in center field with Bradley Zimmer. I get it, Zimmer is a better fielder in most aspects, but without a doubt, Kipnis is the better hitter. I am not saying get rid of Zimmer, there is a lot of upsides, but last season Zimmer was worse the Kipnis in his worst season of career.
Bradley Zimmer last season had only eight home runs and 39 Runs Batted In a previous season in 332 Plate Appearances. Good for according to Predator Baseball Stats, a -3.13 PRI and a -0.47 PWAA, while Kipnis was -2.73 PRI and -0.41 PWAA in 373 Plate Appearances.
Personally, I am not a believer in fielding stats because I believe they are arbitrary to the eye, even with a statist. Most would say Zimmer is a better fielder than Kipnis and by watching that is probably true. But, how many runs does his fielding add compared to his lack of fielding, who knows? What I do know, is if you hit, you play. Do not give up on Zimmer by any means with him being 25 years old, but Kipnis may be the better answer.
Another solution, which I mentioned at the beginning of the article is having the injury-prone Brantley move to first base and shift Kipnis over to left field. This may be a more out of the picture view as the Indians by all reports are active in the market for a first baseman, but this could be a fallback option if the deals fall through.
The final option I will propose comes in the form of moving Jose Ramirez back to third base and Kipnis again to second base.
This in effect, would remove Diaz from the lineup who the Indians are high on.
In 2017, Yandy Diaz finished with 179 Plate Appearances, and only nine extra-base hits alongside 0 home runs.
He is 25 years old with strong upside, but is he ready for an opening day role at third base? It could be a better fit to move Kipnis back to second base and Ramirez to third to start the year.
All and all, Kipnis will most likely fill all these options in 2018 as the year goes. He seems to be the filler when guys go down with his high versatility, but these are just some ideas moving forward.
The possibility of trading Jason Kipnis.
This may be unlikely, but the Cleveland Indians have put his name out there on the market to see what teams may offer for him. I mean, if they do not have an actual plan with him and are looking for their young stars to step up, then why not attempt to get something for him?
Although unlikely from the reports of sources, the New York Mets have seemed at least interested in trading for the second basemen. After trading away their solid second basemen Neil Walker and eyeing a healthy pitching staff, they seem most suited to trade for Kipnis.
Therefore, stay tuned on this in the future if the Indians sign a first baseman and they lack a spot for Kipnis!
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have been the most outspoken in the market for second base and fellow contributor Tim Boyle wrote on them in an article a few weeks back discussing possible trade destinations for Kipnis. However, it seems as though the Angels have just got Ian Kinsler from the Detroit Tigers, pending a physical:
Source: Kinsler to #Angels official.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 14, 2017
Therefore, we can mark them off the list of trade candidates for them.
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Let’s take a look at others teams need that may need a second baseman according to my “Predator Baseball Team Performance by Position”.
In 2017, the Toronto Blue Jays had the worst performance at second base with a .638 OPS costing them -2.94 PWAA (Predator Wins Above Average).
However, the Indians may be seeking something in the farm system and they have a weak one at best, so low chance of trade there.
Maybe this other idea could spark some thought. It is way out there, and once again, this is full speculation, but its fun.
What about trading Jason Kipnis to the White Sox along with maybe a prospect or two for first basemen Jose Abreu?
Look, the Indians need a first baseman, and the White Sox have been at least interested in making a deal for Jose Abreu. Apparently, this is within the division which makes it even more unlikely, but both teams have the right interests to at least attempt negotiations.
We will see what the Cleveland Indians do with Jason Kipnis, but I would say trading him would be the last thing they attempt this offseason in regards to how he fits with the 2018 team.
As of now though, we can see he is the odd man out regarding a position for next year!