The Phillies’ plan to contend in 2019

While Phillies fans are only looking ahead to 2018, the strategy developed by general manager Matt Klentak includes 2019 as well because the four added pieces are integral parts for two campaigns.

Details examined:

For the Philadelphia Phillies, acquiring Carlos Santana was an imperfect fit: right bat, wrong position. However, settling for something workable can be enough.

IN OTHER WORDS: “The afternoon knows what the morning never suspected.” – Robert Frost

During an interview near the end of September, president Andy MacPhail recalled telling the owners to expect a quiet offseason and mentioned their disappointment. But other front offices saw through the deke and were anticipating a few surprises.

On the other hand, Klentak’s television appearances were different. He pointed out the Phils are ready for the next phase of rebuilding. Ergo, the exact opposite.

During the past two winters, Klentak signed six pitchers and two outfielders to one-year contracts, but his three new additions are for two summers or more. In other words, the GM is setting his bullpen and offense up for ’18 and ’19.

With the rotation needing improvement, Klentak’s pattern suggests a starter who is controllable for two seasons or more. But the key is to accomplish that without bankrupting the farm system. Difficult but possible.

Being creative is the current approach for execs to get an edge on other organizations. Yes, the days of moving a defensively challenged infielder to an outfield spot are expanding to solve the created problem of two players for one position.

For instance, the red pinstripes temporarily moved Odubel Herrera, a Rule 5 second baseman, to left field and then to center. Recently, the Seattle Mariners picked up Dee Gordon as a leadoff man, who’ll probably be their new center fielder. The new normal!

Klentak signed Santana because he’s a left-handed bat with power for the middle of the order. The decision-maker overpaid to fix that shortcoming. Additionally, it was doable because Rhys Hoskins had proven he could handle left field.

FOOD FOR THOUGHT: “When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn’t want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.” – Mark Twain

Slamtana:

As usual, Phillies sites still had their share of unhappy fans second-guessing Klentak’s moves, but half took a closer look. And they posted some positive comments despite their initial knee-jerk reaction. Yeah, they went from a no to a maybe.

While some still obsessed over Santana’s homer average and his contract, they overlooked his high OBP, his plate discipline and his lineup flexibility. He can bat in any of the first seven slots.

With the Bank’s hitter-friendly confines, he’ll be able to launch 30 bombs next summer. And his number-crunching skipper will probably have him at times batting second, third, fourth or fifth to maximize his ability.

To compete for the Wild Card in ’18 and the division in ’19, the front office will need dependable rotation arms. And Klentak wants a controllable starter in his late 20s, but he can offer decent young talent and salary relief.

While other franchises will offer top MiLB players and some cash, the hometown nine can absorb the hurler’s commitment and a bad contract also. The Kansas City Royals and the Tampa Bay Rays could be rebuilding teams. However, the Rays don’t have a payroll burden.

On the other hand, Kansas City has a lefty starter and also a candidate for a salary dump. Southpaw Danny Duffy is effective and dependable with $60 million remaining on his deal through 2021. Statistically, he recorded a 3.81 ERA for 146 1/3 innings in ’17.

Duffy, 29:

• 2017: 24 Gms., 146 1/3 Inn., 9-10 and a 3.81 ERA.
• 2016: 42 Gms., 26 Starts, 179 2/3 Inn., 12-3 and a 3.51 ERA.

Kennedy, 33:

• 2017: 30 Gms., 154 Inn., 5-13 and a 5.38 ERA.
• 2016: 33 Gms., 195 2/3 Inn., 11-11 and a 3.68 ERA.

After their run of competitive baseball, the Royals will probably lose three main regulars to free agency. And the vultures are already circling their pitching. Duffy in particular. But taking over the $49 million of Ian Kennedy‘s contract instead of only prospects could be an attractive offer.

While the total cost for Duffy and Kennedy could be $109 million contractually and three controllable players and/or prospects, what could the upshot be for 2018? Wild-Card contention!

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Plate-discipline comparison:

MLB:

• Santana: 14.1 K% and 13.2 BB%.

Crawford:

• Triple-A: 17.4 K% and 14.2 BB%.
• Phillies: 25.3 K% and 18.4 BB%.

Hoskins:

• Triple-A: 15.8 K% and 13.5 BB%.
• Phillies: 21.7 K% and 17.5 BB%.

According to Fangraphs, low walk rates are only acceptable for players with exceptional power numbers. Here are plate-discipline comparisons.

MLB hitting:

• Santana, 31.5: 154 Gms., 667 PA, a .259 Avg., a .363 OBP, a .455 SLG, a .196 ISO, a .274 BABIP, 23 HR, 79 RBI, an .818 OPS and a 3.0 fWAR.

MLB starters:

• Duffy, 29: 24 Gms., 146 1/3 Inn., 9-10, a 3.81 ERA, a 3.46 FIP, a 4.39 xFIP, a 4.31 SIERA, a 3.4 fWAR and a 1.26 WHIP.
• Kennedy, 33: 30 Gms., 154 Inn., 5-13, a 5.38 ERA, a 4.67 FIP, a 4.67 xFIP, a 4.88 SIERA,1.6 fWAR and a 1.32 WHIP.

MLB relievers:

• Hunter, 31.5: 61 Gms., 58 2/3 Inn., 25 Holds, a 2.61 ERA, a 3.07 FIP, a 3.29 xFIP, a 3.07 SIERA, a 1.2 fWAR and a 0.97 WHIP.
• Neshek, 37: 71 Gms., 62 1/3 Inn., 23 Holds, a 1.59 ERA, a 1.86 FIP, a 3.26 xFIP, a 2.70 SIERA, a 2.5 fWAR and a 0.87 WHIP.

Double-A pitching:

• De Los Santos, 22: 26 Gms., 24 Starts,150 Inn., 10-6, a 3.78 ERA, a 3.64 FIP, a 3.72 xFIP and a 1.19 WHIP.

Next: Addressing the two biggest Phillies' rumors

Phillies:

• Galvis, 28: 162 Gms., 624 PA, a .255 Avg., a .309 OBP, a .382 SLG, a .127 ISO, a .292 BABIP, 12 HR, 61 RBI, a .690 OPS, a 1.6 fWAR, 14 SB, 5 CS and a 5.3 Spd.

Crawford, almost 23:

• Phillies: 23 Gms., 87 PA, a .214 Avg., a .356 OBP, a .300 SLG, a .086 ISO, a .306 BABIP, 0 HR, 6 RBI, a .656 OPS and a 0.2 fWAR.
• AAA: 127 Gms., 556 PA, a .243 Avg., a .351 OBP, a .405 SLG, a .162 ISO, a .275 BABIP, 15 HR, 63 RBI, a .756 OPS and a 2.0 WARP.