Nationals rumors: Bryce Harper 2019 free agency value over $400 million?
The 2018 free agent market is moving slowly, but could this hamper the notable 2019 free agents next season as Nationals rumors on Bryce Harper seeking 400+ million dollars?
This off-season has more notable trades than free agent signings. A couple of big trades include the fire sale of the Miami Marlins Giancarlo Stanton to the New York Yankees and also Marcell Ozuna to the St. Louis Cardinals. Washington Nationals rumors have been slow so far with free agency, especially for hitters, has been very quiet.
Arguably the biggest names to come off the free agent hitters list includes Carlos Santana, Mitch Moreland, and Yonder Alonso.
There are still huge names on the board still like: J.D Martinez, Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Jay Bruce to names a few. There are plenty more even after that.
The only area of free agency that has made some movement is the reliever market. This is a new era of baseball as we saw the last couple postseasons with how talented the bullpen is with teams.
Players already signed include Joe Smith (Astros), Brandon Morrow (Cubs), Bryan Shaw (Rockies), Hector Rondon (Astros), Luke Gregerson (Cardinals), Pat Neshek (Phillies), Brandon Kintzler (Nationals), and Wade Davis (Rockies).
The Starting pitcher market is another area that has been slow to develop in the free agent market though. Names like Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, and Jeremy Hellickson remain to be signed.
The question I ask how bad this market has been for players is what happens next off-season when a big-time player like Bryce Harper becomes a free agent?
Washington Nationals rumors: Harper’s worth?
Nationals rumors have speculated that Harper could get upwards of $400 million. If the 2019 free agency plays out like this, is that possible?
Personally, my predator baseball 10-year projections have Bryce Harper worth $435 million. Here is the breakdown of his future:
*PWAA = Predator Wins Above Average
*PMV = Predator Market Value
Year Age PWAA PMV
2018: 25 3.61 $42.73 million
2019: 26 3.77 $44.66 million
2020: 27 3.88 $46.06 million
2021: 28 3.81 $45.45 million
2022: 29 3.90 $46.67 million
2023: 30 3.65 $44.24 million
2024: 31 3.64 $44.30 million
2025: 32 3.46 $42.55 million
2026: 33 3.23 $40.23 million
2027: 34 3.09 $38.94 million
The fact that he will be entering his age 26 season next off-season, I can see him getting a 10-year contract with a big spending team. As you can see, he does not start regressing by my model until his age 31 season and does not seriously start regressing until age 33/34 seasons which is a decade from now.
Even taking out the $42.73 million next season since he is going to be playing in Washington with the Nationals and factoring in 2028 regression, he is still close to worth $30 million at age 35, putting him even above the $400 million mark.
The only real question that hampers Bryce Harper is how hard he plays and his durability. We saw that come into play last season after hurting his knee. Now, I get the argument it was a fluke injury, but aren’t almost all injuries? Just something to keep in mind.
I think Bryce Harper has a legit chance due to his age to get 400+ million dollars. Another question at hand with him on doing that is how many teams could afford that? As of now, that is hard to tell.
Another variable in this speculation is how bad does he want to win?
Some other speculation I have heard is that he wants to play in Chicago with Kris Bryant and create a powerhouse with the Cubs. There are multiple issues with this if he wants a massive contract.
Nationals rumors: Harper heading to the Chicago Cubs in 2019?
First, the Cubs have plenty of players they need to sign to fill out a good roster, including their pitching staff and young position players reaching arbitration as well as free agency.
Secondly, with Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, so why would they sign Bryce Harper?
Lastly, it is impossible he would get a really long-term deal. They point blank will not have the funds unless they create holes at other positions.
Overall, I think this off-season is dragging along because the free agents on the market are suitable, but not drop-dead phenomenal. I would expect next off-season to be different because no two free agent markets between the years are the same.
However, I think even if Bryce Harper was in this market this year he could get $400+ million. We saw how many teams were willing to give prospects and take on the money of Giancarlo Stanton. That tells me if you are good enough, teams are always ready to spend on greatness. Bryce Harper is just that.
My bold prediction for Bryce Harper and where he will sign is also in Chicago, but the south side. I think the Chicago White Sox would be primed to intrigue a big-time free agent next off-season.
They are geared to overtake the Cleveland Indians the next couple of seasons with their young core. While other teams in the division like the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers. To me, they are a lock to get a big-time player, and Bryce Harper would be a great fit.
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This slow market may be concerning for the great free agent class of next season, but I still think Bryce Harper is going to get thrown 400 million dollars and a 10-year deal regardless of the market if these Nationals rumors are indeed true.