Washington Nationals rumors: Harper’s worth?
Nationals rumors have speculated that Harper could get upwards of $400 million. If the 2019 free agency plays out like this, is that possible?
Personally, my predator baseball 10-year projections have Bryce Harper worth $435 million. Here is the breakdown of his future:
*PWAA = Predator Wins Above Average
*PMV = Predator Market Value
Year Age PWAA PMV
2018: 25 3.61 $42.73 million
2019: 26 3.77 $44.66 million
2020: 27 3.88 $46.06 million
2021: 28 3.81 $45.45 million
2022: 29 3.90 $46.67 million
2023: 30 3.65 $44.24 million
2024: 31 3.64 $44.30 million
2025: 32 3.46 $42.55 million
2026: 33 3.23 $40.23 million
2027: 34 3.09 $38.94 million
The fact that he will be entering his age 26 season next off-season, I can see him getting a 10-year contract with a big spending team. As you can see, he does not start regressing by my model until his age 31 season and does not seriously start regressing until age 33/34 seasons which is a decade from now.
Even taking out the $42.73 million next season since he is going to be playing in Washington with the Nationals and factoring in 2028 regression, he is still close to worth $30 million at age 35, putting him even above the $400 million mark.
The only real question that hampers Bryce Harper is how hard he plays and his durability. We saw that come into play last season after hurting his knee. Now, I get the argument it was a fluke injury, but aren’t almost all injuries? Just something to keep in mind.
I think Bryce Harper has a legit chance due to his age to get 400+ million dollars. Another question at hand with him on doing that is how many teams could afford that? As of now, that is hard to tell.
Another variable in this speculation is how bad does he want to win?
Some other speculation I have heard is that he wants to play in Chicago with Kris Bryant and create a powerhouse with the Cubs. There are multiple issues with this if he wants a massive contract.