There have been rumblings in the news about Mike Moustakas being linked to the Mets as a possible landings spot. Should Cardinals get in the action for him? Let’s hope these Cardinal rumors are not true.
Should the St. Louis Cardinals be in on the action to get Mike Moustakas, with Cardinals rumors of a third-basemen buzzing around the Arch City? There have been a few reports that Mike Moustakas is getting some serious attention from the New York Mets as a possible landing spot for 2018 and beyond. Check out fellow contributor Neil Harrington’s post on what the offer could mean for the Mets, then what they say for Cardinals rumors at the hot corner in 2018.
First, let’s consider the needs of the Cardinals when answering this question. The value of Mike Moustakas is a right place to start.
"Reports are that he has been offered somewhere near a four-year deal worth $60-70 million."
I think it is clear from a front office standpoint, that with the current players they have they are contenders. No, probably not the favorites even in their division, but with the current roster, at least knocking on the door with the best teams in the National League.
If there are any holes offensively with the club, they come from the infield corners. Not that Matt Carpenter has been a liability in any way, or Jedd Gyroko for that matter, but are they long-term players in the years to come compared to those on the market like Mike Moustakas?
From a team needs perspective, any time there is a proven 28-year-old player on the market that is a World Series Champion, you entertain the idea of adding him if the price is right. Statistically speaking, we have to compare Jedd Gyroko, the projected opening day third-baseman, with Mike Moustakas to see if indeed he is an excellent addition.
Age wise, both players are entering their age 29 season, which makes them a great comparison. Mike Moustakas had a bounce-back season in 2017 after being hampered by injuries for most of 2016. He popped 38 home runs, drove in 85 runs, and had an OPS of .835.
Digging deeper into the analytics, according to baseball reference, actually had Moustakas as a below average player posting a -0.3 WAA, equating only to a 1.8 WAR. This is not even at starting position player level by their WAR value.
Jedd Gyroko on the other hand in 2017 was an offensive beast early in the season only to tail off down the stretch. He followed a 30 homerun season in 2016 with 20 in home runs in 2017, driving in 67 runs, and posting a .813 OPS.
Analytically, he was an above average player posting a 2.1 WAA and a 3.6 WAR. Considerably higher than Mike Moustakas. Comparing the two players using my Predator Baseball Wins Above Average and Wins Above Replacement, I give Mike Moustakas a slight advantage over Jedd Gyroko.
In 2017, I had Mike Moustakas at a 1.24 PWAA and a 1.73 PWAR. Jedd Gyroko on the other was above average as well, but just not as much posting a 0.74 PWAA and a 1.23 PWAR. Personally, I do not think Mike Moustakas would be a fine addition for the Cardinals; especially considering the reported offer for him in the $60-$70 million dollar range for four years.
Using Spotrac’s Market Value for players, they say that Mike Moustakas is worth roughly $16.3 million annually. That means for a four-year deal they say it should be close to $65 million. Very much in the ballpark of the reported offer.
Using my Predator Baseball Projections for Mike Moustakas, I have him worth $13.1 million annually. For a four-deal, my projections say he is worth roughly $52 million.
For the St. Louis Cardinals, they should NOT go after Mike Moustakas. Hopefully, these Cardinals rumors and rumblings stay only that. There is no advantage for the team in doing so. Jedd Gyroko’s contract is much more club-friendly costing just $6.5 million next season and $10 million the year after, and depending on where or what you look at, they are very comparable players regarding production.
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Best of luck to the New York Mets and maybe Mike Moustakas is a good fit there for what they need. However, for the St. Louis Cardinals, let’s sit this one out and hope we these Cardinals rumors do not come true, where they would waste extra revenue on him.