Baseball Hall of Fame: Should Scott Rolen make it to Cooperstown?
The Baseball Hall of Fame announcement for 2018 is coming on January 24th. Here is the how I view Scott Rolen’s resume for enshrinement to Cooperstown.
The MLB Baseball Hall of Fame announcement is coming soon, and there are various high-quality first timers like Chipper Jones and Jim Thome that are near locks to make it in this year.
On the other hand, there are players who have been on the ballot for multiple years and have an issue with steroids such as Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Sammy Sosa.
I could get into those discussions, but this is going to be about one of my favorite players of all time, Scott Rolen.
My bias is I watched him growing up on some of the best St. Louis Cardinals teams and be part of the 2006 World Series Championship team. Being a Cardinals fan, that elevates him to me, but I will attempt to make this as objective as possible, I just thought I would be fair to all who read this.
From, Scott Rolen won the rookie of the year award in 1997. He also won one World Series as mentioned in 2006 with the St. Louis Cardinals, as I said previously. He was a seven-time all-star and played for four different teams, but is mostly remembered for his time for the Phillies and Cardinals.
Most notably, he won eight gold gloves and known for his amazing play in the field at third base. In 2004, he also won the Silver Slugger Award.
None of that is a separator for Scott Rolen on making the Baseball Hall of Fame, but he has enough credentials for an eye test to keep looking deeper into his case for enshrinement.
Baseball Hall of Fame: Scott Rolen’s career statistics
Scott Rolen won the rookie of the year in 1997 dropping 21 home runs and driving in 92 runs for the Philadelphia Phillies. He also slugged an excellent .469 and got on-base at a .377 clip. According to my own Predator Baseball Wins Above Average (PWAA), he was worth 1.44 wins. All at the age of 22, this was a preview of a great future in baseball for a true professional.
From 1997 to 2006, ages 22 to 31, I deem as his peak years, he had an average seasonal OPS of .869. Nine of the ten seasons during that time frame, he hit 21 or more home runs and drove in at least 77 runs. He also accumulated 18.71 PWAA, which is astounding.
In total, Scott Rolen amassed 70.0 wins above average over his 17 seasons of play using Baseball References WAR. Other than his first 37 games he played in during the 1996 season, he never produced a negative WAR value.
Some other career totals include:
Games: 2,038
Hits: 2,077
Home runs: 316
RBI: 1,287
SB: 118
FLD %: .968
Baseball Hall of Fame: Comparing Scott Rolen to Brooks Robinson
I think when looking at Hall of Fame caliber players, it is good to compare players of the similar position that have made it.
I will say for Scott Rolen, this can be somewhat troubling when making a reason for his candidacy for induction. When trying to compare him to guys who are in the Hall of Fame at third base, he is not as good as Wade Boggs, Mike Schmidt, or Eddie Matthews. Quite frankly, even the guy on the ballot that is a third baseman, Chipper Jones, had a distinctly better career during the same time frame.
However, one guy who Scott Rolen does compare well with is Brooks Robinson. By no means when I compare Brooks Robinson am I saying he is not worthy of the Hall of Fame. He was MVP in 1964, an 18-time all-star, and won two World Series, alongside 16 Gold Gloves. Wow.
On the surface, Brooks Robinson surpasses Scott Rolen regarding accolades. Twice as many Gold Gloves, 11 more all-star appearances, and Scott Rolen never won an MVP.
However, his MVP 1964 season, which was his best, was worse than Scott Rolen’s best season. In 1964, Robinson hit 28 home runs and had 118 runs batted in. He also slugged an impressive .521 and had an OPS of .889. His WAR according to baseball reference was 8.1, and my Predator Baseball PWAR (Wins Above Replacement) was 3.64.
In Scott Rolen’s best season, which I say was 2004, he hit 34 home runs and drove in 124 runs. He slugged an unbelievable .598 with an OPS of 1.007. His WAR that season according to baseball reference was 9.2, and my Predator Baseball PWAR was 4.04.
An argument would be that Robinson played more seasons than Rolen, which makes him better overall. While it is a fact that Robinson played more seasons with 23 compared to Rolen’s 17.; is it okay to continue playing if you are actually below average?
In Brooks Robinson’s career according to my Predator Baseball PWAA, in years 18 through 23, he was only above average one time out of the six extra seasons. In sum-total during those seasons, he had -0.23 PWAR.
The last comparison for the players comes from the defensive side of the ball.
Brooks Robinson is arguably the greatest defensive third basemen to ever play the game. He finished with a career .971 fielding percentage with 2,870 games at the position. His range factor was 3.10, and the league average was 3.09.
Scott Rolen, on the other hand, finished with a career .968 fielding percentage with 2,023 games at the position. His career range factor was less than Robinson’s at 2.75, but the league average was only 2.67 during his career. Rolen, in a more hitter-friendly period, was more above average defensively regarding range than Robinson with nearly the same fielding percentage.
Personal bias, Scott Rolen is the best defensive third basemen I have ever watched on a day to day basis, and Nolan Arenado is a close second.
Baseball Hall of Fame: The verdict of Scott Rolen’s immortality
According to Ryan Thibodaux Hall of Fame vote tracker, Scott Rolen looks like he will most likely get enough votes to stay on the ballot. Although he is already eliminated from making Hall of Fame this year, I do not even believe he is a first ballot worthy.
I think this year, there are clear cut players ahead of him like Chipper Jones and Jim Thome, etc. However, I think looking forward it is going to be close to him making the Hall of Fame. I hope he does get enough votes to stay on the ballot because he clearly deserves the debate.
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Is he borderline? Probably. Comparison to his era, he was never the best player during his prime at the position except for maybe one or two seasons, even on his team. He did play with a no-doubt first ballot Hall of Fame player Albert Pujols for a majority of it. I think that hurts him overall.
Overall, I believe Scott Rolen should be in the Hall of Fame. He probably is a top 20 third basemen of all time, and when there are only sixteen players in the Hall of Fame as third basemen, I find it hard to not put him in there.
He compares well with arguably the best defensive third basemen Brooks Robinson. Maybe not as good, but for his era, he was the best at it himself.
He has the case of longevity playing 17 seasons, although totality of accolades and magic numbers are missing a bit, like not reaching 400 home runs or 3,000 hits.
Next: Who was lost in baseball during 2017
However, what I showed was how good his peak was in his prime. Compare his best seven seasons with almost all Hall of Fame third basemen, and he has a strong case for the Baseball Hall of Fame.