The St. Louis Cardinals have named Luke Gregerson the closer if the season was to start today.
A reporter asked President of Baseball Operations for the St. Louis Cardinals John Mozeliak of who is the closer going into the season in an interview a few days ago and without hesitation he says:
"“I think going into the season right now it would be Gregerson.”"
The confidence in which the Cardinals front office appears to have with the team they have is not shocking as we have seen their conservative spending approach for a couple of years now. However, is Luke Gregerson the closer the Cardinals need to win in 2018?
I believe this answer is relatively quick for most fans and that answer would be no. Personally, I still think they need another piece in the back-end of the bullpen, and or, a frontline starter to take innings off the bullpen.
Sorry folks, if anyone does get signed, do not expect it to be a big name like Greg Holland. Luke Gregerson is the man…for now.
For all intensive purposes, let’s see what the projections say about Luke Gregerson for next season.
First, here Fangraphs Steamer Projections:
2018 Projections:
Innings: 55
Wins: 3
Saves: 4
ERA: 3.54
FIP: 3.50
WHIP: 1.24
SO: 55
WAR: 0.6
Secondly, here is my own Predator Baseball Projections:
2018 Projections:
Innings: 60
ERA: 3.65
Saves: 16
HWHB (H+BB+IBB+HB / IP): 1.16
PWAA: 0.70
PWAR: 1.18
I know that is a lot of statistics all at once to digest. Ultimately, what does this say?
Well, from a distance and looking at the cover of the projections, Luke Gregerson is going to be an above average bullpen piece. Any pitcher that post a mid 3.00 ERA and has a WHIP or HWHB below a 1.30 should have a pretty productive season.
Let’s say he does what both projections say he will do. Does he have a chance to be a good closer?
By the numbers of using the WHIP as a means to an end for closer effectiveness. With that, I mean that the top closer’s, in theory, should allow less players on-base in innings leading to fewer runs. Here are the findings.
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Last season, Kenley Jansen posted a 0.75 WHIP, Cody Allen posted a 1.16 WHIP, and Wade Davis posted a 1.14 WHIP. Slightly lower than what Luke Gregerson is projected.
Only three of the top sixteen saves leaders, all of which had 26 or more saves, posted a WHIP of 1.26 or higher. They finished ranked 14th, 15th, and 16th in saves, which are not suitable for Luke Gregerson filling in the closer role.
Using the same idea with HWHB and my Predator Baseball stats the result is a bit different.
Incredibly, using the same 16 players that I mentioned as the control as saves leaders in 2017, there average HWHB was 1.18. Precisely what Luke Gregerson is projected for 2018.
The top saves leader with 47, Alex Colome, had an HWHB of 1.36. Ten of the sixteen players had higher than 1.18 HWHB’s.
I mentioned Greg Holland earlier in the piece. He has been linked to the Cardinals as a possible Free Agent pick-up, and his HWHB in 2017 was precisely 1.18.
Using Fangraphs Steamer projections, the verdict would be that Luke Gregerson is going to be a quality bullpen piece, but not a closer.
Although, using Predator Baseball Projections, Luke Gregerson could be a comparable closer to Greg Holland if he does indeed post a 1.18 HWHB in 2018. There is hope!
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In summary, Luke Gregerson is going to be a good bullpen pitcher for the St. Louis Cardinals for 2018. Will he be the dominant closer like we saw with Seung-hwan Oh? Most likely not, but he will be better than what they had in 2017. I sure hope as a fan of the Cardinals that he surprises us all.