St. Louis Cardinals: Way too early projections for 2018
The St. Louis Cardinals have made some moves this off-season, but where do the projections say they are for the 2018 season?
Anytime someone, including myself, tries to project a season ahead using any “formula,” it most of the time does not work out well. However, if you are looking for multiple different sources that show different outcomes, then this is for you. The St. Louis Cardinals under-performed in 2017.
Not just in the sense that they finished in third place barely getting over the .500 mark with 83, but because many projections said they should have done better. In one example, using Baseball Reference’s “Pythagorean Theorem” to show how many wins a team “should have” won, they said the team performed more like an 86/87 win team. 86.67 wins to be exact.
Even my Predator Baseball model suggests the team under-performed. My model had them at 84.45 wins compared to their actual 83 wins.
As the headline suggests, where are they now after making some moves?
Verdict: Better than 2017 and 2016 (maybe), but not a top-tier team.
According to Fangraphs, the moves this off-season have pushed the St. Louis Cardinals in the right direction, but still not good enough for first in the division, let alone the National League.
As of now, they have the Cardinals projected for 88 wins. That would put them 8th best in the MLB and 4th best in the National League. However, it is still a decent margin of 4 games behind the Chicago Cubs projected 92 wins.
Offensively, they are projected to have the 10th best offensive regarding Wins Above Replacement in all of the MLB. The Chicago Cubs project as the 2nd best, while the rest of the division seem-to-be bottom dwellers in comparison.
In terms of pitching, it came as a shock to me, the St. Louis Cardinals are projected as the 6th best pitching staff in Wins Above Replacement projections. Just off the pace of the Dodgers, Astros, Indians, Yankees, and Nationals. Not sure how I feel about those projections, but as a fan, I like it!
Using my Predator Baseball model to project the 2018 season, I have the St. Louis Cardinals at 87.11 wins. I too, have them as the 8th best team in baseball and also 4th best in the National League. However, a big difference between my projections and Fangraphs projections is that I have the Chicago Cubs further ahead at 94.91 wins, putting them as the 3rd best team in baseball.
On a happier note, we would be in the Wild-Card game based on both projections. Take that as sarcasm because our front office still has work to do, apparently, to keep up with the rivals on the north side of Chicago.
Offensively according to the Predator, the St. Louis Cardinals project as the 5th best hitting team in baseball regarding Wins Above Average. I think most of us would agree, with the players within the lineup; the team does look promising to have a good year and maybe a great year offensively.
The significant difference between Fangraphs projections and my Predator Projections is in the pitching category.
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For 2018, the Predator suggests the St. Louis Cardinals is going to be average posting only a 0.28 Wins Above Average. That puts them a solid 18th in the MLB. The Chicago Cubs, on the other hand, are projected at 5.26 Wins Above Average. A clear advantage.
I think that is a little more accurate than Fangraphs personally, not because the St. Louis Cardinals are going to have a bad pitching staff, but they have a lot of variables.
Questions arise such as Adam Wainwright’s health and age, Miles Mikolas but can successes translate from Japan to the MLB, and can new bullpen pieces like Luke Gregerson and Dominic Leone make a difference?
Obviously, by no means is this going to be 100 percent accurate. Seasons in the MLB never go as planned, but this is what it would look like based on two different models projections.
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I think overall it can be seen the St. Louis Cardinals have improved from last season, but the gap between them and the Chicago Cubs still remains. Hopefully, a few things go right in 2018 and they find their way back to the Postseason.