The MLB free agency has been slow to develop. However, I have reason to believe they are still getting paid their worth.
This has been a slow-moving MLB free agency market as we have been continually hearing this whole off-season across the MLB. However, I genuinely believe this is not a function of players not getting what they deserve. Instead they are over-valuing themselves.
Even now there has been speculation of players boycotting spring training.
In this article, I will go through a few key free agent signings and use my Predator Baseball Market Value to compare what they got regarding contracts to what they are said to be worth by my model.
Here are some top MLB free agency hitters that have signed:
*PMV = Predator Market Value
* All contract values are based on Spotrac
Player Contract Signed PMV (Equal Years)
Carlos Santana 3 years/$60 million $43.87 million
Jay Bruce 3 years/$39 million $38.11 million
Zach Cozart 3 years/$38 million $35.36 million
Yonder Alonso 2 years/$16 million $17.16 million
Todd Frazier 2 years/$17 million $18.14 million
Wellington Castillo 2 years/$15 million $16.17 million
Mitch Moreland 2 years/$13 million $12.86 million
Howie Kendrick 2 years/$7 million $13.39 million
Matt Adams 1 year/$ 4 million $8.00 million
This is a sample of what has already happened and what is evident, is that teams are still willing to spend money on players. Look how much Carlos Santana received in comparison to what he considered to be worth.
How about Zach Cozart getting signed with the Angels for a big chunk of change?
In total, of this sample of players signed they got paid roughly 209 million dollars. Their PMV was worth $203.06 million. They in total still got paid more than what they are projected to be worth.
So, what are the players arguing about like Eric Hosmer? Length of the contracts is the heart of the matter. All these players got no more than three years. Teams are willing to pay their worth, they have just been stubborn on the length. With that, I can agree, but for the shorter contracts, they will get their due.
On the other side of the ball, there is another similar trend. Pitchers, especially relief pitchers, are getting paid in short-term deals. There is more volatility in the pitching market though.
Here are some top pitchers that have signed:
Player Contract Signed PMV (Equal Years)
Wade Davis 3 years/$52 million $34.95 million
Mike Minor 3 years/$28 million $49.44 million
Jake McGee 3 years/$27 million $18.73 million
Bryan Shaw 3 years/$27 million $20.43 million
Brandon Morrow 2 years/$21 million $17.05 million
Addison Reed 2 years/$16.75 million $24.44 million
Pat Neshek 2 years/$16.25 million $28.91 million
Joe Smith 2 years/$15 million $13.77 million
Michael Pineda 2 years/$10 million $13.45 million
Doug Fister 1 year/$ 4 million $1.10 million
As you can see, the pitchers across the board have been much more volatile in terms of getting their worth. Mostly, they are more dependent on what the teams need. Also, with pitching is that there is a much higher risk of signing them.
Either way, they are still getting paid in the short term deals. For this selection of players, they got paid 217 million dollars. My PMV has them worth $222.27 million.
Once again I will say this, the reason why Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, and Alex Cobb are holding out because they want years that are not there. Teams are willing to pay contracts five years and under. But, when you start getting to the six, seven, and eight years…unless you are Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, or another star that reaches free agency by age 26, no way you get that anymore. Pitchers with the greater chance of injury are even more-so not going to be getting the years.
Next: Phil Coke eyeing MLB return after stint in Japan
Ultimately, I think I will agree that there is frustration with players about job security and getting the years they think they deserve during MLB Free Agency. However, teams realize that investments that long have proved to be hampering to team long-term success. The money is there, just not seven years down the road.