How bad has Scott Boras’ 2018 MLB free agency been?

Scott Boras entered the offseason with as much possibility as anyone. Representing two of the year’s top free agents, Boras had reason to expect a handsome payday for his agency. Now, as spring training looms, Boras and his clients could be getting desperate.

Behind every massive contract is a capable agent. They’re the primary point of contact between teams and free agents during the offseason. For years now, Scott Boras has been known for getting his MLB clients every dollar he can. However, as this unique offseason dwindles, Boras’ methods may have lost their effectiveness on MLB teams. Heath Cummings of CBS Sports put it best:

In an offseason that’s been slow for players, teams, fans, and agents, Scott Boras is apparently struggling more than others. But why is that, and how much of the fault is his own?

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Boras has been known to encourage his players to test the 2018 MLB free agency market, rather than sign extensions with their current team. It’s an apparent solid strategy; it should allow competition and a free market to drive up the price tag on his assets. The recent issue for Boras and his clients is that MLB teams have become growingly warier to signing lengthy and expensive contracts for players.

Teams have been burned in recent years

You don’t have to look very far to find a big contract that back-fired on the club. Jason Heyward of the Chicago Cubs signed an eight-year deal worth $184 million, and his most significant contribution to the team so far was a locker room speech. His defense is among the best in baseball, but that’s only worth so much given his struggles to get on base.

David Price signed an ace-esque contract with the Boston Red Sox contract for seven years worth $217 million. He’s missed significant time with injury, but even when he’s been on the field, his performance hasn’t lived up to the contract he was given.

So are Boras and his clientele victims of circumstance? Perhaps partially, but not entirely.

Jake Arrieta should have never hit MLB free agency

Scott Boras’ two top clients this offseason are Jake Arrieta and J.D. Martinez, the latter of which I’ll get to soon. But it’s Arrieta’s lingering free agency that best shows the potential flaw in Boras’ philosophy.

Arrieta’s prime was undeniably his prime even as it unfolded. His second half of 2015 is impossible to replicate—by Arrieta himself and possibly by anyone. So why would Boras not go all in on getting the best extension possible for Arrieta following that season? Their position to negotiate was as good as it would ever be. But it wasn’t their last moment to have an advantage in negotiating an extension.

Following the 2016 season, Arrieta regressed in the regular season. There was no other direction to go; a regression from 2015, when he won the Cy Young, was inevitable. But still, he pitched well enough to show he could be a real ace and that 2015 wasn’t a pure fluke. Still, Boras and Arrieta’s intent on hitting free agency remained unwavering.

Then Arrieta had his contract year in 2017 in which he lost velocity and again regressed in most metrics. Now, Arrieta had nowhere to go when pitchers around the league reported to Spring Training Tuesday. His own Chicago Cubs have signed Yu Darvish while Arrieta still waits for an offer he’ll accept.

Boras is significantly overvaluing J.D. Martinez

Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported the Red Sox offered Martinez a five-year deal worth $100 million. This is coming off a career year for Martinez—one in which he hit over twice as many home runs (53) as he averaged in previous seasons. As MLB teams wisen up, paying for what a player has done lately is becoming less popular.

That’s not to say Martinez wasn’t good in previous years—he’s had three seasons where he’s batted over .300. But he’s also 30 and a five-year contract would take him halfway to 40. Five years for $100 million is more than reasonable for Martinez in the current free agent climate.

Next: Phillies begin work on versatility on their own time

Arrieta and Martinez are only two of Scott Boras’ many free agents that are still without a jersey. Both could still sign attractive contracts and Scott Boras may ultimately end up look like a genius for waiting out the 2018 MLB free agency market. But for now, the sheer amount of Scott Boras’ clients unsigned looks concerning for his agency.