In 2016, the Chicago Cubs won 103 games and the World Series. Their 2018 roster is on paper as good—if not better—than their 2016 roster, but that may not be quite as valuable as it appears.
The 2016 Chicago Cubs were the best team in baseball that year and perhaps the best team in franchise history. But their on-paper talent might not have been enough to win their first World Series in 108 years alone. The truth about that team is that they were also an incredibly fortunate and lucky club.
It’s odd, even now, to put “luck” and “Chicago Cubs” in the same sentence without a “bad” modifier in between. And it’s not that the Cubs were lucky—they were also very, very good. But in 2016, everything went right for Chicago.
How the Chicago Cubs have improved since 2016
The most visible improvement could be the starting rotation. The Cubs lost Jake Arrieta but replaced him with a comparable Yu Darvish this offseason. Jason Hammel departed the Cubs immediately after the 2016 season, and in 2017, the Cubs filled his role with Jose Quintana. John Lackey hit free agency—and seems likely to retire—after 2017. The Cubs responded by picking up Tyler Chatwood who may be on the brink of a career year.
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
Almost across the board, the rotation has improved. The only genuinely arguable exchange is Arrieta for Darvish, but the evidence overwhelmingly indicates that that decision was made by the Cubs themselves with their faith in Darvish.
The lineup hasn’t changed as much—a benefit of building a young core. Another advantage of having a young core is that they should continue improving. The only significant impact bat they’ve lost is that of Dexter Fowler’s. But if Ian Happ’s Spring Training means anything—many don’t think it does—that leadoff role may be in good hands.
Why the 2016 Cubs were as good as they were
The 2016 Cubs had a lot go their way. Aside from the famous Kyle Schwarber injury, the club was remarkably healthy. Usually, even a team with as many top prospects as the Cubs have seen far fewer of them become capable at the big league level. The Cubs had several players only a year or two removed from being top prospects perform at a high level at the same time.
Next: Arizona Diamondbacks: Zack Greinke regains old form
In baseball—especially in the postseason—being really good isn’t always enough. Usually, the teams that play the last game of MLB for the year both had their breaks of good fortune and luck. The Cubs had it in 2016, and if it graces them again in 2018, they should at least return to the NLCS for the fourth consecutive year.