Seattle Mariners: Can Robinson Cano pass Jeff Kent in career homers?

Will Seattle Mariners second baseman Robinson Cano become the all-time home run leader for second baseman?

The Seattle Mariners didn’t get much going with the bats on Tuesday night. Facing Lance McCullers, Jr., the Seattle could only scratch out a single hit in the first seven innings.

Two Houston relievers allowed a hit each in the final two innings, giving them three for the night. The M’s also struck out 14 times in the 4-1 loss. For the most part, it was a night to forget.

There was one slightly bright note, however. Seattle Mariners second baseman Robinson Cano hit the 302^nd home run of his career, moving him past Rogers Hornsby in career home runs for players who primarily played second base. The only second basemen ahead of Cano is Jeff Kent, with 377 big flies.

It should be noted that Alfonso Soriano hit 412 career home runs, but he played 300 more games in the outfield than at second base. Both Cano and Kent are true second baseman.

Robinson Cano is projected by the Fangraphs Depth Charts to hit another 20 home runs before the year is done, which would move him to within 56 home runs of Jeff Kent’s career total. Considering that he’s signed through the 2023 season (at $24 million per year), it might seem inevitable that he will pass Kent sometime in the next few years. Then again, at 35 years old, that is not a certainty.

He is currently 76 home runs short of Jeff Kent’s career total and is early in his age-35 season. His contract with the Seattle Mariners lasts through his age-40 season. In the history of baseball, only two second baseman has more than 75 home runs from age 35 on. Hall of Famer Craig Biggio is one, and Jeff Kent is the other.

Historically, Aging second basemen haven’t been productive home run hitters. Should Robinson Cano reach his projection for this season, he’ll have 321 homers through his age-35 season and will need 56 more as he enters his age-36 season.

There have only been two-second basemen with more than 20 homers in a season at the age of 36. Jeff Kent in 2004 is one, and Ryne Sandberg in 1996 is the other. Kent hit 27. Sandberg hit 25. Next on the list among 36-year-old second baseman is Jose Valentin in 2006, with 18. Cano is likely to be in the 15-20 homer range, leaving him 35-40 short of Kent.

It gets worse for 37-year-old second basemen. Only Jeff Kent in 2005 hit more than 15 in a season. He had 29 that year. The next-highest total was 14 by Chase Utley in 2016. If Cano hits another 15 or so, he’ll still be around 20-25 short of Jeff Kent’s career total heading into his age-38 season.

More from Call to the Pen

• Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
• Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
• Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
• Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
• 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals

The most home runs a 38-year-old second baseman hit was the 17 launched by Davey Lopes in 1983. Three other aging second basemen hit 14, then it drops to nine. A big factor is the limited playing time at the position as a player reaches his late 30s.

There have only been 12 players with 500 or more plate appearances who primarily played second base at the age of 38. Robinson Cano will have to age well to continue to be productive as a 38-year-old. Should he hit 10-15 homers, he’ll be within five or ten homers of Kent.

As you’d expect, 39-year-olds who regularly play second baseman are a very rare thing. In the history of baseball, there have been four second basemen with 500 or more plate appearances at the age of 39. One was Kid Gleason in 1906. Gleason’s claim to fame was time as the manager of the Chicago Black Sox, although he was not involved in the scandal.

The other three are of more recent vintage: Joe Morgan in 1983, Craig Biggio in 2005 and Jeff Kent in 2007. Biggio hit 26 homers; Kent hit 20 and Morgan hit 16. They were the outliers. No other 39-year-old second baseman hit more than five. Robinson Cano will have to be an outlier to move ahead of Jeff Kent as a 39-year-old.

The final year of Robinson Cano’s contract is the 2023 season when he’ll be 40 years old. If he’s aged well, he may have already passed Kent on the second baseman home run leaderboard. If not, he’ll hope to follow in the footsteps of Tony Phillips in 1999, Craig Biggio in 2006 and Jeff Kent in 2008 as 40-year-old second basemen who were still somewhat productive home run hitters. Phillips hit 15 home runs at that advanced age. Craig Biggio hit 21. Kent hit 12.

Next: Beltre the most under the radar (future) MLB Hall of Famer?

Robinson Cano may catch Jeff Kent in home runs, but he’ll have to age well to get there. The Seattle Mariners are hoping he does, as they are paying him $24 million per year through the 2023 season.

Of course, making the playoffs is even more important than how many home runs Robinson Cano will hit and the Seattle Mariners are looking to end the longest postseason drought in baseball. Ideally, he will be part of the team that does that.