Phillies: Why they may be ‘for real’ in about four minutes
Are the Philadelphia Phillies for real in 2018? We break down their worth and potential in 2018.
Are the 2018 Philadelphia Phillies “for real”? That is the question. They’re winning two games for every one lost, and a .667 winning percentage is something not a single team achieved in the ’17 season.
Let’s consider the date. I’m starting this on Shakespeare’s 454th birthday, pret-ty early in the season, so the correct answer to the question is who knows? However, that’s not in the spirit of the question submitted, surely.
Let’s see, after an appalling first week hard on the heels of the Eagles’ Super Bowl victory, the Phillies have totally righted the ship and are a lock to go to the World Series and pound the Red Sox into guacamole dip. No, that doesn’t quite sound right either.
The correct answer is who knows? It may be suggested, however, that the Phillies of their 9-1 current home record are very possibly more the “real deal” than the Phillies of their 1-4 stumble out of the season’s blocks. There are two reasons for this, one of which has escaped much comment so far.
One is not the first-year manager, Gabe Kapler, or at least he is not clearly a reason for hope yet. His troops seem to have largely bought into his positive vibe, if not entirely so, but two things about Kapler need to stand the test of a bit more time – the nearly complete embrace of decision by analytics, and his manner, which threatens to become cloying in the extreme with every new linguistic filip such as referring to Phillies relief pitchers as his “dudes.”
The real strength of the team resides in the young talent. That means Rhys Hoskins, Scott Kingery, and the starting pitchers so far, although the relief pitchers have also been mostly effective.
The rotation of Aaron Nola, Jake Arrieta, Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, and Ben Lively is a true early season surprise. Before play April 24 they had combined for 119.2 innings pitched and had given up 40 earned runs.
These figures represent a 3.01 ERA and an average of 1.90 ER per outing regardless of length. That’s for the whole rotation. The question is whether that rate is sustainable for the back end.
However, Nick Pivetta, in particular, is beginning to look like a pitcher who could become a No. 1 or No. 2 starter, posting a 2.57 ERA and a WHIP of 1.00 to date. Among the starters, only Jake Arrieta is over 26.
As for Hoskins and Kingery, you may now begin listening for total MVP estimates for these two as a talking point. Flat-out goofy stats are being noted for Hoskins – for example, the FanGraphs estimate that hit Twitter giving his value thus far this season as $8.7 million, or as the tweet read, “a crisp $67 million” for 162 games.
FanGraphs estimates that Rhys Hoskins has produced at a level worth $8.7 million through the first 21 games of the 2018 season. If you project that level of production out to a 162-game season, Hoskins would be worth a crisp $67 million. pic.twitter.com/ABN838xupH
— Tim Kelly (@TimKellySports) April 23, 2018
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Among other young Phillies producing so far is the relative veteran Odubel Herrera, who is rolling along with a slash line of .329/.369/.456. Herrera will not turn 27 until nearly New Year’s Day and is signed through 2021.
The other reason to believe in these Phillies, possibly for the World Series trophy next year, is what might be called Arrieta’s Choice.
Jake Arrieta’s decision to sign with the team is conventionally understood to be a matter of Phillies GM Matt Klentak refusing to blink before the pitcher’s agent, Scott Boras, did.
I’m not so sure that is entirely accurate. Jake Arrieta was correct in his estimation that he could wait until about halfway through spring training to sign with anybody and still be successful early in the season.
That’s what has happened so far. His deal, $75 million for three years, could have been paid by many teams, or a near figure would have been settled on.
Next: Kapler slammed again by Francona for “anti-military” remarks
Instead, the pitching leader of the off-season’s free agent market chose the Philadelphia Phillies. Jake Arrieta saw something beyond the team’s family atmosphere cited by the press.