2016 was Rocky taking on Apollo. The new kid came up just short of stealing the title. 2018 is the rematch, and maybe, just maybe, Mike Trout versus Mookie Betts can work out as well for the underdog as it did for The Italian Stallion.
Before we get started, let’s just acknowledge that it’s early to be picking front-runners for the MVP. It’s also not going to be a two-man race. That said, there is a lot of buzz about the Red Sox right fielder stepping up to the level of the face of the Angels, Mike Trout, and that’s worth digging into. We’re also just talking about 2018 here, not their careers.
And we’re not prognosticating about where their careers will end up. The Boston bowling champ has a long way to go before we can even have that conversation. But right here? Right now? Mike Trout versus Mookie Betts in 2018. Who have you got?
(Stats current as of May 7, 2018)
The contender: Mookie Betts.
Markus Lynn Betts is off to his best start ever. The five-tool star has been crushing the ball all season and has already entered the Red Sox history books. He has a 224 wRC+, 13 HR, 26 RBI, 36 R, and 3 SB. That’s good for 2.5 fWAR, nearly half of the 5.4 fWAR he totaled in the 2018 season. It’s also 30% of the way to his near MVP 2016 figure with just 21% of the season in the books. He’s been a monster at the plate, a wizard in the field, and to the eye, his baserunning has been a plus so far.
He ranks 2nd in fWAR, 1st in wRC+, home runs, and runs scored. He’s 12th in RBIs with the leagues 3rd best OBP and top SLG. He leads Mike Trout in SLG by a whopping 98 points. What’s more is that what Mookie Betts is doing might just be sustainable.
Let’s dig into the numbers.
His BABIP is just .302. So there aren’t any overt warning signs that he’s about to come crashing back down to Earth. This is supported by his league-leading 17.1 Brls/PA (a measure of high-quality contact with at least a .500 BA and a 1.500 SLG). He’s also sitting on the 22nd highest average exit velocity at 93.2 MPH. And he has the 5th most balls hit at 95 or higher. He’s hitting the ball almost 5 MPH harder than he did last year, and 3.5 MPH harder than he did in his runner-up for the MVP year.
Additionally, he’s brought his average launch angle up 7.3 degrees, which was one of the things I noted he could do to improve over the winter. The increase in launch angle and the harder contact make for a compelling case that this is a sustainable change even if he is likely to regress a little.
He’s also more aggressive with pitches he can do damage against. On the advice of new manager Alex Cora, he’s no longer letting pitches go by if he feels like he can hit them hard. Especially pitches he can pull. Mookie’s pull percentage is up to 50.5% while his up the middle and opposite field rates have dropped. Over his career, he has posted wRC+’s of 250, 255, 247 and 203 when pulling the ball. He’s at 436 this season.