The declining Albert Pujols and others before him

Ken Griffey, Jr.

Junior spent 11 years at the start of his career with the Seattle Mariners and established himself as one of the best players of the 1990s. Then he went to Cincinnati where injuries cut into his playing time, limited his fielding ability, and his hitting declined.

His Hall of Fame excellence is almost entirely due to what he accomplished through the age of 30, which included his first year 11 years with the Mariners and one year with the Reds.

Consider the numbers. This shows an average season from Griffey through the age of 30 and an average season from age 31 on (WAR is from Baseball-Reference):

Ken Griffey, Jr.—First 12 seasons, ages 19 to 30:

• 140 G, 157 H, 97 R, 36 HR, 106 RBI, .296/.380/.568, 148 OPS+ (11-time All-Star)

Ken Griffey, Jr.—Final 10 seasons, ages 31 to 40:

• 99 G, 90 H, 50 R, 19 HR, 57 RBI, .260/.350/.483, 114 OPS+ (2-time All-Star)

Griffey was a perennial All-Star with the Mariners and in his first season with the Reds. He averaged 97 runs, 36 homers, 106 RBI and 6.4 WAR per season. He was worth 76.2 WAR during this time, which was 90 percent of his career total of 83.8 WAR.

This is the Griffey his fans like to remember. It’s easy to forget that just three of his final 10 seasons were league average or better and he was particularly awful in his last three seasons, hitting .229/.332/.397 in 293 games (0.2 WAR total).

Historically speaking, through their age 30 seasons, Griffey had almost the same WAR total as Willie Mays (76.2 To 77.0 WAR). From the age of 31 on, Griffey added 7.6 WAR and Mays added another 79.4 WAR. That’s why Mays is one of the handful of greatest players ever. Griffey was at that level for more than a decade, but the long, slow fade dropped him down a tier or two.