Seattle Mariners: How does their recent trade improve playoff chances?

How much did the Seattle Mariners improve their playoff hopes with their trade with the Rays on Friday?

Baseball fans had to know Seattle Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto was itching to make a trade after the Mariners lost Robinson Cano to an 80-game PED suspension and Dee Gordon to a toe injury.

Dipoto loves to make trades, and he seems to really love making trades with the Tampa Bay Rays. Friday’s swap was the tenth trade Dipoto has made with the Rays since taking over as GM in September 2015.

Losing Cano and Gordon was the impetus of this trade. Gordon started the year as the Mariners’ center fielder but moved to second base when Cano was suspended. After just three games at second base, he was injured and placed on the DL. Mariners manager Scott Servais doesn’t expect Gordon to be out much longer than 10 days, but Dipoto started looking around for improvements anyway.

With Gordon moving from center field to second base, the team was in need of a major league caliber outfielder. On Friday, they acquired that outfielder, Denard Span, along with reliever Alex Colome from the Tampa Bay Rays for minor league pitchers Andrew Moore and Tommy Romero. The trade improves the Mariners this year, which is Dipoto’s primary concern.

So, just how much does this trade improve the Mariners’ chances to make the playoffs? They just acquired an outfielder who can play left or center field and a reliever who will enter the mix as a setup guy for closer Edwin Diaz. Before the move, the Mariners had a good offense, good pitching, and below-average defense.

With the trade, the Mariners improved their offense and relief pitching, while possibly losing a bit on defense. That being said, fans shouldn’t expect a major improvement. Teams don’t trade two relatively unknown minor league pitchers and get back players who will greatly improve their team.

This isn’t like acquiring Manny Machado, who could be worth four wins above replacement over the rest of the season. This deal is maybe a one-win improvement for the Mariners, but given where they stand in the wild card race, that one win could be crucial. So how does this trade break down?

Span is a better hitter than Gamel. He’s hit better than Gamel this season and projects to hit better over the rest of the season:

• Span, so far: .238/.364/.385, 114 wRC+
• Gamel, so far: .226/.309/.333, 82 wRC+
• Span, projected: .259/.331/.392, 97 wRC+
• Gamel, projected: .249/.307/.376, 85 wRC+

Unfortunately, the difference in defense could wipe away the difference on offense. Span has been worse than Gamel defensively so far and projects to be worse going forward. Combining offense, defense, and base running, ZiPS projects Gamel to be worth 0.1 WAR over the rest of the season. Steamer projects him to be worth 0.2 WAR.

Those same two projection systems have Span at 0.1 WAR (ZiPS) and 0.7 WAR (Steamer) over the rest of the season. If you prefer ZiPS, there’s no difference between Gamel and Span. Steamer sees about a half-win difference in favor of Span.

Of course, Gamel will still get playing time, so it’s not a one-for-one swap. The Mariners recently called up outfielder John Andreoli from the minor leagues. With Span heading to Seattle, he will slot in ahead of Gamel on the depth chart and Andreoli will head back to Triple-A Tacoma. With that in mind, Span could be worth about a half-win for the Mariners.

In the bullpen, Colome will move into a setup role for Edwin Diaz, who has been terrific as the team’s closer. Colome will join Juan Nicasio and Nick Vincent as a high-leverage reliever in the seventh and eighth innings. Everyone else gets pushed back a spot, with an as-yet-unknown pitcher heading to the minor leagues.

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The pitcher the Mariners send down will likely be a replacement-level pitcher. Colome is projected to be worth 0.7 WAR by the Fangraphs Depth Charts. Combine that with the half-win provided by Span and this move projects to gain the Mariners around one win. Sure, that doesn’t sound like much, but every win counts when you’re trying to make the playoffs for the first time since 2001.

With their 2-1 win on Friday night (go Big Maple!), the Mariners are 30-20 and sit three games behind the Houston Astros in the AL West. Their .600 winning percentage is fourth in the American League, and they currently hold the second wild card spot by 2.5 games over the Los Angeles Angels. Things are going well in the Emerald City.

On the other hand, their +9 run-differential is sixth in the AL, and their expected record is 26-24. They are 14-8 in one-run games. Teams, even the best teams, generally regress toward a .500 record in one-run games. Many underlying metrics suggest the Mariners are playing above their heads right now.

We can also look at projected standings. Both Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus have the Astros winning the AL West and Cleveland winning the AL Central. They both have the Red Sox and Yankees battling it out for the AL East, with the loser easily taking the first wild card spot. That leaves one playoff spot for the rest of the AL.

Fangraphs has the Mariners and Angels in a dead heat, both projected for 86 wins. The Athletics are projected to be four wins back, the Blue Jays five back, and the Twins six back. It’s a similar story at Baseball Prospectus. They have the Angels and Mariners with 84 wins, the Athletics with 81 wins, and the Twins and Rays with 80.

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As you can see, the margin is razor thin. It looks like the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels will have a heated battle for the second wild card. With this trade, the Mariners may have added a win to their total in exchange for two pitchers who weren’t going to help them this year. It’s not a significant trade, but it’s a little something, and every little something could be extremely important by the end of the season.