Seattle Mariners are in driver’s seat for second wild card

Shohei Ohtani WAR projections

Before the injury, Shohei Ohtani was projected to be worth another 0.6 WAR as a hitter and 1.8 WAR as a pitcher. Overall, that would make him a 4.4 WAR player for the season, with 2.4 WAR coming from this point forward. The most recent update of the Fangraphs Projected Standings has Ohtani worth 0.3 WAR as a hitter and 0.9 as a pitcher for the rest of the season.

Of course, that’s without knowing how long he’ll be out. Ohtani has a Grade 2 sprain of his UCL. That means there’s a partial tearing of the ligament. He’s undergone platelet-rich-plasma (PRP) and stem cell injections already.

Some pitchers have returned to pitching after this treatment and continued to pitch without needing Tommy John Surgery. Masahiro Tanaka is one example. Other pitchers have gone down the PRP/stem cell path and still needed Tommy John surgery. Ohtani’s teammate Andrew Heaney went through this in 2016. The Angels won’t know which path Ohtani will take for at least a few weeks.

Even if Ohtani returns to full health, the Angels will have difficulty catching the Mariners. The Fangraphs Projected Standings have the Mariners finishing with 90 wins. That’s still 11 wins behind the Yankees or Red Sox, both of whom are projected for 101 wins, but it puts the Mariners in the driver’s seat for the second AL Wild Card spot. Consider the most recent projections.