Cleveland Indians once again look like an elite team
The Cleveland Indians are on a roll. Have they once again become an elite team?
As of June 24, the Cleveland Indians have won six straight games. They took the series-finale against Minnesota to start the streak, after losing the previous two to them. After that, they dominated the Chicago White Sox with a clean sweep.
The team is also one game away from sweeping the Detroit Tigers, winning the first two pretty handedly. In this span of six games, the Indians have outscored their opponents by 42-7, a run differential of +35.
They are now 42-33 on the year, with a +60 run differential, and lead the American League Central by seven games.
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Even when Cleveland was struggling to stay above .500, everyone knew they would win their soft division. The sad truth is it does not take a whole lot to be the best team in the AL Central. The Indians had to be merely decent, coming off a 102-win season, to find themselves with the division crown.
As such, the question entering 2018 was never “will the Indians win the AL Central?” but “by how many games will the Indians win the AL Central?”
With notable free-agent departures such as Carlos Santana and Bryan Shaw, Cleveland was not expected to be as dominant this year. They also were not expected to struggle as badly as they did in the beginning of the season.
On June 3rd, a mere twenty-one days ago, Cleveland was 30-28 with just a 2.5 game lead. The bullpen continued to be one of the worst in baseball and their offense was muddled in mediocrity.
Since that point, Cleveland has obviously gone 12-5 and has gained 4.5 games in the standings. The Andrew Miller-less bullpen has enjoyed better results, placing with the 11th-best ERA (3.15) from June 3rd to now. Additionally, they have featured the 13th-best FIP (3.76) in the same timeframe.
They have been middle-of-the-pack on the offensive side of the ball, while their starting rotation has truly been responsible for this commanding stretch. Their rotation ERA (2.41) and FIP (2.34) are both best in the league since early June.
This should not be too surprising considering Cleveland’s been carried by their pitching staff this season. Outside of the Houston Astros, there is more than a viable case for the Indians to have the best rotation in the game.
Corey Kluber is clearly one of the game’s best pitchers and that has not changed in 2018. Meanwhile, Trevor Bauer has stepped up into the elite-tier of starting pitchers this season. He possesses the 2nd-highest fWAR (3.9) among starters, ahead of the aforementioned ace of the Indians’ rotation.
Mike Clevinger has also been stupendous this year, with a dazzling 3.00 ERA and 3.20 FIP in close to 100 innings. Despite succumbing to an injury that should only sideline him for a short while, Carlos Carrasco has remained one of the better pitchers in baseball.
Rounding out the rotation, we have rookie Shane Bieber, at the ripe age of 23, who literally just does not walk people. In three starts for Cleveland this year, he has compiled a sterling 2.45 ERA and 2.61 FIP, striking out more than a batter an inning.
So, yeah, they have an elite rotation that has been able to pick up the rest of the team’s slack. With that said, the Tribe does have evidently talented position players.
Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are two of the best players in all of baseball, while Michael Brantley is having a sneaky good season in their shadows. Behind them, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso and Yan Gomes have been above-average hitters, although the first man on this list has not hit as well as he was anticipated to.
Combine a league-average offense with one of the best pitching rotations in baseball, and the Indians have the foundation to be a formidable postseason adversary. In fact, they could be a bullpen upgrade (or two) and a healthy Andrew Miller away from playing like the 102-win Indians of 2017.
Their BaseRuns record, over at Fangraphs, suggests they should have an even better record than they actually have. Sure, it is just a mere extra win, 43-32, but this should breed hope about the sustainability of the Indians’ performance. For those unaware, BaseRuns removes sequencing and just looks at how a team has actually produced for their calculations.
Moreover, Fangraphs also projects Cleveland to go 50-37 the rest of the way, with the fourth-highest projected winning percentage in baseball. Add their current record to their projected rest of the season record, and the Indians would be a 92-70 team. Per Fangraphs, this would give them the fourth-best record in baseball.
Yes, the Indians are aided because they are able to play a big chunk of their games against the punchless AL Central.
The team is 24-13 versus their own division while they are 18-20 against everybody else this season. Since June 3rd, which is the arbitrary starting date of their hot streak, they have only played one series against a non-AL Central team.
This is a team which will benefit tremendously from one of the lighter schedules in baseball. With that said, the talent on this squad, especially in the rotation, is unquestionable.
With Cody Allen, Brantley and Miller all set to be free agents at the end of the season, the consensus is that the Indians’ window to win is closing. While it is dubious on how true that is, given that they still have a plethora of young, controllable pieces, the looming trade deadline will be pivotal for Cleveland.
They are not as talented as fellow AL competitors in the Houston Astros, New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. Anything can happen in baseball but they are clearly at a disadvantage going up against any of those teams.
With a more secure bullpen, the talent-gap can be narrowed. However, do not sleep on the Indians come postseason time. The rotation is fearsome and their offense is pretty dang good, too.
This hot stretch for the Indians has come against bad teams but there is no faking a +35 run differential in six games. The Cleveland Indians are a better team than you think and are poised to be a postseason threat this season.