Detroit Tigers: Is vintage Jordan Zimmermann back?
Instead of having an old Jordan Zimmermann, the Detroit Tigers may be getting the Jordan Zimmermann of old.
The Detroit Tigers inked right-handed pitcher Jordan Zimmermann to a five-year, $110 million contract before the 2016 season. As a proven, command and pitch-to-contact pitcher coming off five straight 3+ fWAR years, this deal appeared to make some sense.
Detroit was aware their window of contention was closing and hoped the signing would make a difference. Even with the inherent risk of signing any pitcher, let alone one on the cusp of 30, to a long-term commitment, it seemed like the former Washington Nationals starter could provide the team with a lot of value.
Well, heading into the 2018 season the Tigers’ window had closed indefinitely. The club had been shackled by immovable and inefficient long-term contracts and a gutted, desolate farm system. Zimmermann fell into the former category, becoming a shell of the pitcher we witnessed in Washington for over half a decade.
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In his first two years with the clubs (2016-2017), Zimmermann compiled an abysmal 5.60 ERA and 4.88 FIP. Despite never being a big punch out guy, his strikeout rate cratered while his walk rate rose considerably. He ran an unsightly 5.73 K/9 in that span, a mark which is a significant departure from his career 7.17 K/9. Somewhat improbably he allowed more runs (174) than he collected strikeouts (169).
At age 32, the writing seemed to be on the wall for Zimmermann. It is very hard to be an effective MLB starter with a strikeout rate that low without being an extreme pitch-to-contact pitcher. He could not work the strike zone like he used to and all of his pitches looked worse for the wear. Put it together, and the return on investment did not forecast much optimism. Of course, that was until the Tigers’ starter decided to rewrite the script.
After an applaudable 8-inning, 1 earned run performance (11 K and 0 BB) against the Texas Rangers on Friday, Zimmermann has pitched to the tune of a 3.51 ERA and 3.05 FIP on the 2018 season. He has done this in 56 and 1/3 innings while accumulating a 1.6 fWAR, which already surpasses his season-high in a Detroit uniform.
As mentioned, he had run a sub 6.00 K/9 for two consecutive seasons but this year it is up to a 8.95 K/9. That is the best it has ever been; not just as a Tiger but in the entirety of his career. Even when he was one of the game’s best arms, he never came close to striking out such a profuse amount of batters.
Meanwhile, his command has come back to him, dropping his BB/9 to 1.60 on the year. In 2017, his BB/9 sat at a seven-year high 2.48 BB/9. Obviously, he is striking out a lot more hitters and walking a lot less. That is decidedly a good combination, which will almost assuredly reap better results.
The salient reason for this increase in strikeouts has been his uptick in slider usage. It was the only pitch of his four offering that was positive in pitch values last year. It was worth 15.1 runs above average, while, for comparison, his four-seam fastball was worth -27.3. Pitches do work together, however, and this should not be taken as a reflection of how good his slider actually is. It does not exist in a vacuum, influenced by the sequence of other pitches.
Detroit Tigers
Still, with such a large discrepancy between his slider pitch value and his other pitches, this likely means his slider is a pretty dang good pitch. According to Brooks Baseball, he has garnered an incredibly impressive 28.23 Whiff/Swing off the pitch in his tenure as a big-league pitcher. That is the highest percentage of whiffs against any of his pitches. Moreover, hitters have only been able to muster a .226 batting average and .340 slugging percentage off the breaking pitch.
This year, however, the Whiff/Swing is up to 32.20 and the opposition is hitting just .186 against the slider. Even though it is being used 35.1 percent of the time (almost as much as his four-seam), which is the highest of his career, he has found an abundance of success with it. Historically, he has shied away from the slider against lefties but has deployed it more frequently against his opposite-handed counterparts this year.
Further, facing both handed hitters he has used the slider as his predominate two-strike pitch. Versus left-handers he is using it 37 percent of the time (tied with the four-seamer) and versus right-handers he is using it 54 percent (!) of the time with two strikes. If you are an opposing batter, especially a right-handed one, and you are not waiting on a breaking pitch, then you did not do your homework.
Not to minimize his resurgence, but most of this success can be attributed to the slider. His curveball has been excellent, as well, but he does not throw it nearly as often as its sister breaking ball. The four-seamer has been better yet it is still getting hit pretty hard and has underwhelming velocity (91.2 average mph).
Moving away from his pitch mix, he has been one of the least-skilled pitchers at yielding groundballs. Back in the day, Zimmermann used to get quite a few batted balls on the ground. This has changed since he has arrived in Detroit, falling to a career-low 29.7 groundball percentage this season. In fact, among pitchers with at least 50 innings, he places 145 out of 150 pitchers in GB%.
It should be common knowledge that groundballs do less damage than flyballs and line drives. Consequently, most pitchers prefer to induce groundball contact. With that said, he has been feasting on weakly hit flyballs, with the 8th-highest percentage of infield flies (16.0%) among pitchers with the same qualifications as above.
It is thus fairly unsurprising that his percentage of soft contact (Soft%) is the lowest it has been since 2011 at 22.5 percent. Lastly, his HR/9 (homeruns per 9 innings) is 0.96 which is right in line with his career 0.97 HR/9. He is a different pitcher, though, with a heavier flyball profile, so this may be due for some negative regression.
Jordan Zimmermann is putting together his best campaign as a Detroit starter by a landslide. He is not exactly the same pitcher he was on the Nationals, but he has reverted back to being a very good one. His slider, which is described as “hard” over at Brooks Baseball, has been the key for 2018 Zimmermann. Using it frequently in strikeout counts, it has enabled him to post the highest rate of punchouts in his entire career.
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Despite the fact it took a couple of years, Zimmermann is starting to live up to the lucrative deal he agreed upon on the cusp on the 2016 season. Hey, it is better late than never.