Boston Red Sox: Five Possible Trade Deadline Candidates
Heading into the All-Star break, the Boston Red Sox are the best team in the MLB. Unfortunately for them, the New York Yankees are still hanging around. As any team prefers winning the division to playing in a one-game wild card playoff, the Red Sox will be looking for any and all upgrades.
Near the 2017 trade deadline, the Red Sox acquired Eduardo Nunez from the San Francisco Giants and Addison Reed from the New York Mets.
To acquire Nunez, Boston sent out a pair of right-handed pitchers, Gregory Santos and Shaun Anderson. To acquire Reed, Boston sent out a trio of right-handed pitchers, Gerson Bautista, Jamie Callahan, and Stephen Nogosek.
Even with these additions to the team, the Red Sox were ousted by the Houston Astros in the American League Division Series. The Yankees were ousted by the Astros in the American League Championship Series and reacted by trading for the 2017 National League Most Valuable Player, Giancarlo Stanton.
The Red Sox waited until February to make a significant counter move, but they were able to sign J.D. Martinez. Martinez finished 14th in the 2017 NL MVP voting. However, that does not tell the whole story of his elite hitting ability.
Heading into the 2018 All-Star break, J.D. Martinez has 29 HRs and 80 RBI through 393 plate appearances. Through 489 plate appearances in 2017, Martinez had 45 HRs and 104 RBI. As he only played 119 games last season, it will be exciting to see where his HR and RBI total could end up with 150+ games played in Boston.
Martinez and Mookie Betts are a terrifying duo for any opposing team. Combine them with Chris Sale and Craig Kimbrel and the Red Sox are in a great position to win it all. Nonetheless, there is still room for improvement to secure an AL East title.
According to salaries and contracts on baseball-reference, the Red Sox currently have the highest payroll in the MLB at $227.5 million. The Red Sox already have $133.6 million committed for next season and that figure could increase to $211.7 million if all arbitration-eligible players are kept along with all options being picked up. Due to this, they will most likely be looking for players who become free agents at the end of the season.
The following are five trade candidates that could improve the Red Sox chances at securing an AL East title:
The Colorado Rockies are most likely not going to be sellers at the trade deadline. Regardless of their chances at the playoffs, they may have trouble keeping LeMahieu in free agency. With Ryan McMahon, Pat Valaika, and Garrett Hampson looming as viable options at second base for the Rockies, it may make sense to move LeMahieu for pieces that can help either now or in the future.
D.J. LeMahieu will most likely require a contract similar to the one Zack Cozart signed with the Los Angeles Angels at 3 years, $38 million. Although that is a reasonable amount, the Rockies are running into possible payroll issues. In 2019, they already have an estimated $131.4 million payroll if all arbitration eligible players are kept. The payroll is also already estimated to be $163.5 million in 2020 and $152.7 in 2021.
The Rockies have team options for Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee, and Wade Davis that could turn into players options based on performance requirements. If all of the options end up on the payroll, they could increase the above 2021 payroll by an additional $28.0 million.
The Rockies franchise cornerstone, Nolan Arenado, will also be a free agent following the 2019 season. Arenado is not purely motivated by money, but the Rockies will surely have to plan for at least an additional $25 million on top of the above 2020/21 figures if they want to retain the superstar.
Due to all of this, the Rockies may not be able to afford LeMahieu and it may make sense to move him now instead of relying on draft compensation as a possible reward.
The Red Sox have a need a second base as Dustin Pedroia has been unable to stay healthy. Eduardo Nunez and Brock Holt have filled in nicely for the Red Sox, but LeMahieu would definitely be an upgrade.
LeMahieu holds a career .353 OBP and has compiled a 10.1 oWAR in 7 seasons with the Rockies. He has also provided an 8.3 dWAR in those 7 seasons. This season, he holds a 3.26 OBP and a 1.0 dWAR.
Holt has great offensive numbers on the season, but keeping him only at second base takes away from his overall value. He has played second base, shortstop, right field, left field, and first base this season. The defensive versatility and great offensive numbers make Holt a fantastic utility player that should not be limited to one position. So far this season, he holds a .363 OBP and a -0.2 dWAR.
On the other hand, Nunez has a .283 OBP for the Red Sox this season and he holds a -1.2 dWAR on the year. Nunez could either fill in as a secondary versatile infield piece, or as a possible trade piece.
As Nunez does not play the best defense and Holt provides the best value by being able to move around the field, LeMahieu makes sense to provide stability at second base for the remainder of 2018.
James Shields is currently the right-handed version of CC Sabathia. As most teams would love to have Sabathia as a part of their rotation, this makes Shields an underrated trade commodity.
Before you go straight to the next slide, I want to make a pitch for why James Shields make sense for the Red Sox.
Chris Sale, Rick Porcello, and David Price are locks for the playoff rotation. Although the 2009 New York Yankees only needed three starters throughout their World Series run, most teams go into the postseason with more starters planned out. As Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Wright, and Drew Pomeranz are currently on the disabled list, the Red Sox may want to secure a backup plan.
James Shields could very well be a viable backup plan. Even though Shields is 4-10 with a 4.43 ERA this season and Sabathia is 6-4 with a 3.51 ERA, that does not tell the whole story of their comparison.
Shields currently holds a 4.49 FIP with a 1.270 WHIP while C.C. Sabathia holds a 4.53 FIP with a 1.270 WHIP. These two veterans may not have the same stuff they once did, but they can still be counted on for both innings and consistency.
Shields currently has a $21 million contract, but $11 million is being paid by the San Diego Padres. He also holds a $16 million team option for 2019 that comes with a $2 million buyout.
Combining the under the radar season for Shields with his postseason experience makes him a great rotation option. He’s known as “Big Game James” for a reason.
The Baltimore Orioles are having a dreadful season. Although Machado and Britton are receiving most of the headlines, Adam Jones will also be a hot commodity this trade season.
The Red Sox already have a great defensive center fielder in Jackie Bradley Jr., but his offense numbers are not on par with the rest of his teammates.
Bradley Jr. holds a .297 OBP this season with 25 XBH’s and a .642 OPS. Although Adam Jones only holds a .299 OBP this season, he has 36 XBH’s and a .723 OPS.
Jones does not rate the same in the dWAR numbers as Bradley Jr, but his defense is still great. Bradley Jr. holds a 2.26 RF/9 which factors in put-outs plus assists per nine innings played. Jones holds a 2.37 RF/9. The range factor displays the fielding ability Jones possesses more than dWAR displays.
Adam Jones is a 5-time MLB All-Star, 4-time Gold Glove winner, and a 1-time Silver Slugger.
Jones would help Boston in center field on both the offensive and defensive side of the game. Adding him to this current Red Sox team would be a huge addition.
Mike Moustakas is a great slugger that had an unfortunate 2017 offseason. He went into the offseason expecting a big payday but had to settle for a contract much lower than his qualifying offer. Rafael Devers was recently placed on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation. Due to this, there could be a question on his health for the remainder of the season.
Even if Rafael Devers is able to stay healthy, he only holds a .292 OBP and a .424 SLG on the season. This is a drop off from last season when he held a .338 OBP and a .482 SLG. The health of his shoulder may be the reason for this decline, which is why ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick listed him as a trade candidate for the Red Sox.
Conversely, Mike Moustakas holds a .306 OBP and a .466 SLG this season. This is a drop off from his .314 OBP and .521 SLG last season. However, this may have more to do with the talent around him this year.
Removing Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer from the Royals lineup has allowed pitchers to not have to go after Moustakas. Pitchers would not be able to pitch around Moustakas in a Red Sox lineup that also features J.D. Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, and Mookie Betts.
If the Red Sox acquire the 62 XBH’s version of Moustakas, their lineup could be too much to handle.
Boston has a great top of the rotation, so they may only need six outs from their bullpen in the postseason. Hector Velazquez and Matt Barnes are great relievers. However, Boston would definitely feel more comfortable getting the final outs from Britton and Kimbrel.
Zach Britton has pitched in only 15 games for the Orioles this season, but his ability should not be judged solely on his 14.2 innings pitched where he has compiled a 4.30 FIP.
The bloated FIP mostly comes from an appearance against the Atlanta Braves in his 5th game of the season. In that appearance, he allowed 5 hits and 4 earned runs in 0.1 innings pitched. Since that game, he has pitched 10 innings while only allowing 5 hits and 2 earned runs. This is the Zach Britton we all know.
The Red Sox and Orioles have prior trade history with another great left-handed relief pitcher, Andrew Miller. In 2014, the Orioles traded Eduardo Rodriguez to the Red Sox to acquire Miller.
Zach Britton and Craig Kimbrel would be a dominating 8th and 9th inning duo to close out games for Boston.
Next: All-time NL All-Star team
So, there you have 5 possible trade scenarios for the Red Sox as they head into the MLB Trade Deadline. Which of these do you think is most feasible? Which is most far-fetched? Comment below!