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Washington Nationals Juan Soto and the Greatest Teenage Season of All Time

By Michael Francis

WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 01: Juan Soto #22 of the Washington Nationals reacts against the New York Mets during the sixth inning at Nationals Park on August 01, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 01: Juan Soto #22 of the Washington Nationals reacts against the New York Mets during the sixth inning at Nationals Park on August 01, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) /
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Washington Nationals outfielder, Juan Soto, is having an outstanding season and one of the greatest seasons ever by a teenager.

Before the season, there was plenty of talk about some exciting rookies for the 2018 season. In the National League there was Ronald Acuña Jr. who lit up the minors last season and the American League had two-way Japanese superstar Shohei Ohtani. While those players have dominated headlines at times this season, Washington Nationals 19-year-old outfielder, Juan Soto, is the one who is making history. Through 287 plate appearances this season, Soto has a 165 wRC+ which easily puts him on pace for the greatest teenage batting season ever.

In 1928, Mel Ott posted a 140 wRC+ and that has been the greatest mark by a teenager ever since. 90 years later, this record is finally in jeopardy. Soto is projected to finish the year with a 155 wRC+ which would still blow the record out of the water. Soto also has a chance at having the best all around teenage season ever as well. Soto currently stands at 2.7 fWAR, which is already tied for fourth best all time with some guy named Ty Cobb. The record is 4.4 fWAR set in 2012 by Bryce Harper. Harper didn’t have nearly the offensive season that Soto is having, but he was much more valuable in the field. With all of Soto’s value coming from his bat he will have to continue hitting at this elite level if he is going to catch his teammate. He is on pace for about 4 wins but he certainly has a chance to get to that 4.5 mark.

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While it is truly amazing what Juan Soto is doing, it is equally amazing how he is doing it. At only 19 years of age, Soto is a near perfect all around hitter. Soto is currently slashing .315/.432/.567 and if he keeps up his current batting line, he will be the first teenager to ever post a .400 or better on base percentage. You would think that a 19-year-old with a .400 on base percentage was driven mostly by a high batting average but Soto has a top five walk rate in the game. His plate discipline has been one of the most incredible stories of the season. He has been very patient at the plate swinging at less than 25% of pitches out of the zone and only 40% of pitches overall. Being selective at the plate allows Soto to lock in on pitches he can do damage with. Soto has only swung and missed at 8% of pitches and has had excellent power on contact. Soto has been one of the most impressive hitters in the big leagues this season.

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Of course it is a big surprise that Juan Soto is even in the position to have this kind of season this year. Soto came in to the season as a top prospect in the minors but anyone that claims they expected him to even play in the big leagues this season is lying. Soto entered the year with only 29 games played above rookie ball and a rough injury history. He then began 2018 in low A ball before making his fast and meteoric rise toward the majors. A reasonable time-table for Soto’s debut would have been early 2020, but for him to already be up and doing what he’s doing is simply remarkable.

Everything Soto is accomplishing this year is also completely sustainable. While he has been a little lucky thus far with a .355 babip and a 30 point difference in expected versus actual wOBA, all of his underlying stats still suggest that he is a superstar. Taking any amount of luck away still has him as one of the best hitters in all of baseball this season. Doing all of this at just 19 gives him an unprecedented start to his career. No teenager has ever had a walk rate like Soto. His 17.1% mark is six percentage points higher than Mickey Mantle‘s at the same age. His .315 batting average is only one point behind Ty Cobb at the same age and that is the only statistic in which Cobb was better. His .999 OPS is more than 300 points higher than the teenage seasons of hall of famers Bill Mazeroski, Robin Yount, Al Kaline, and Ivan Rodriguez. We have never seen anything like what Juan Soto is doing this season.

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Unfortunately, Soto does not provide much value in the field or on the bases, so everything that Soto does in his young career will likely pale in comparison in total value to the amazing seasons that Mike Trout has put up in his career. However, Soto looks like the kind of hitter where it doesn’t really matter what else he does, he is going to be one of the great young hitters in the game for years to come. He is so good that the Washington Nationals might not even need to re-sign fellow young superstar Bryce Harper, but that is another story for another day. For today and the rest of this year we all just need to enjoy and appreciate the incredible season that Juan Soto is having.

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