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National League Cy Young: Max Scherzer Remains the Clear Frontrunner

By Phil Akre

WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 17: Max Scherzer #31 of the Washington Nationals and the National League throws out the first pitch in the first inning against the American League during the 89th MLB All-Star Game, presented by Mastercard at Nationals Park on July 17, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 17: Max Scherzer #31 of the Washington Nationals and the National League throws out the first pitch in the first inning against the American League during the 89th MLB All-Star Game, presented by Mastercard at Nationals Park on July 17, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) /
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While Jacob deGrom has been incredible for the sinking New York Mets’, his National League East rival, Max Scherzer, has been even better. When it’s all said and done, Scherzer should take home National League Cy Young honors.

In a year where the entire New York Mets’ organization has been comically bad, Jacob deGrom has unequivocally been the team’s brightest attraction. He should win the National League Cy Young award. Heck, he he’s squarely in the running for NL Most Valuable player, too.

I’m sorry Mets’ faithful. I really am. But, the National League Cy Young winner shouldn’t be deGrom. Instead, that winner should be his division rival, Max Scherzer.

Before you rush to tell me about deGrom’s minuscule ERA, let’s take a look at some important points as to why Scherzer is the right choice.

Any year a pitcher has a sub-3.00 ERA, they’re going to be in the running for the Cy Young award. If a pitcher has a sub-2.00 ERA, then it’s nearly a given he’ll win the award. That’s the case for deGrom. Across 159 innings, he’s allowed a mere 32 runs. That’s a 1.81 ERA. Translation; he’s been an ace.

He’s put himself in some pretty good company, too.

In the last two years, no pitcher has finished with a sub-2.00 ERA. Jake Arrieta finished his 2015 Cy Young run with a 1.77 ERA, the second lowest in baseball behind Zack Greinke‘s 1.66 mark. When Clayton Kershaw won the award in back-to-back years from 2013-14, he had the lowest ERA in all of baseball.

Do you see the trend here? Simply based off deGrom’s ERA this year and recent history, he has a great shot to win the award.

Aside from limiting runs, it’s been nearly impossible to hit home runs off him. He’s surrendered just eight long balls through 159 innings. That rate of 0.5 HR/9 stands as the best in the league.

But, for this year’s award, these stats won’t make the cut.

The 34-year-old Scherzer has done even more, which is hard to believe. His 2.19 ERA seems further away from deGrom’s 1.81 mark, too.

Scherzer has allowed 41 earned runs in 9.2 more innings compared to the Mets stars 32.

Remarkably, Scherzer has gotten better with age. His ERA has steadily declined from 2016 (2.96), 2017 (2.51) and now 2.19. This year, he could mimic Arrieta’s 2015 season, when the former Cubs’ ace finished second in ERA but still won the award.

If you move past ERA, you’ll see why Scherzer has been the more complete pitcher. It’s quite simple, too. Washington’s ace is the NL leader in a lot  important statistics for pitchers.

  • WHIP (0.883)
  • Innings Pitched (168.2)
  • Strikeouts (227) talk about more and lower totals but better K/9
  • K/9 (12.1)
  • Hits per Nine (5.8)
  • Wins (15)
  • WAR (7.7) talk about

Sorry for the laundry list, you can thank Scherzer for it. In terms of deGrom vs. Scherzer, the Mets’ ace only leads ‘Mad Max’ in ERA, ERA+, FIP and HR/9. Depending how important you weigh ERA’s importance, this could be an easy call. But, the Nationals ace has simply out-performed deGrom in more areas.

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If you notice Scherzer’s sparkling WHIP of 0.883, you’re on to something. Like his ERA, his WHIP has steadily declined since 2016 and 2017, when he won back-to-back awards.

In those two Cy Young seasons, he didn’t lead the NL in ERA. Rather, he did what he has carried into 2018; control the game in more aspects than just run prevention.

Helping Scherzer’s case is the fact that he just might get to 20 wins. Of course, pitcher wins and losses don’t really mean much anymore (Hello, deGrom), a potential finish of 20 wins certainly says something of the pitcher’s importance.

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So, if you’re a Mets fan, deGrom diehard or just a Scherzer hater, take some time to think about what I said. You might be able to see why in a year where deGrom has soared, a familiar foe might steal the National League Cy Young award.

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