MLB Awards: AL Rookie of the Year Top 5 contenders

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DETROIT, MI – JULY 1: Bob Kendrick, president of the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum, presents Michael Fulmer #32 of the Detroit Tigers with the Larry Doby Legacy Award for American League Rookie of the Year before game two of a doubleheader against the Cleveland Indians at Comerica Park on July 1, 2017 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images) /

The AL ROY race is one of the closest among MLB awards races as it has five contenders, including a pair of teammates, a dual threat, and two under-the-radar options.

With less than a month to go in the 2018 season, the American League Rookie of the Year race could be one of the tightest races among 2018 MLB awards and one of the closest finishes in the last 10 years. For most of the last decade the AL ROY of the year was a slam-dunk. Last year, Aaron Judge received every first place vote and beat second-place finisher Andrew Benintendi by 75 points. In 2016, Michael Fulmer received 26 of 30 first place votes, with Gary Sanchez getting the remaining four votes.

Going back to 2008, slam-dunk winners include Jose Abreu (30 of 30 first place votes in 2014), Mike Trout (28 of 28 first place votes in 2012), and Evan Longoria (28 of 28 first place votes in 2008). Each of these players was unquestionably the best rookie in the league that year. Two other players received at least 20 first place votes: Wil Myers in 2013 (23 first place votes) and Neftali Feliz in 2010 (20 first place votes).

That leaves just three seasons in the last 10 in which the Rookie of the Year received fewer than 20 first place votes. A close race occurred in 2009, when relief pitcher Andrew Bailey beat out shortstop Elvis Andrus and starting pitcher Rick Porcello. Bailey had 13 first place votes to Andrus’ eight and Porcello’s seven. In 2011, Jeremy Hellickson had 17 first place votes, with the other 11 being distributed among Mark Trumbo (5 votes), Eric Hosmer (4 votes), Ivan Nova (1 vote) and Dustin Ackley (1 vote).

More recently, Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor had a great battle for the AL ROY Award in 2015. Despite having a higher Fangraphs WAR and Baseball-Reference WAR, Lindor finished behind Correa in the voting. Correa received 17 first place votes to 13 for Lindor.

Unless one of the contenders has a monster month of September, this year’s AL ROY race looks like a rare closely contested competition. I’ve narrowed it down to five contenders. Two are teammates on a playoff-bound team and two are relative unknowns. The fifth is having a historic season that has been limited a bit by injury. Let’s look at the contenders.

KANSAS CITY, MO – AUGUST 31: Starting pitcher Brad Keller #56 of the Kansas City Royals throws in the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Kauffman Stadium on August 31, 2018 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images) /

Royal Rookie

SP Brad Keller
Fangraphs WAR: 1.6
Baseball-Reference WAR: 2.8
Wins Above Average: 1.7
Win Probability Added: 1.3

Brad Keller will NOT win the AL Rookie of the Year Award. That doesn’t mean he’s not deserving of some consideration. He’s in the mix among this final five with a month to go in the season. Keller’s biggest problem is that he’s on a team, the Kansas City Royals, that will lose over 100 games. They could lose 110 games. They are just awful.

Keller is not awful. He’s started 16 games and pitched in relief 21 times. He has a very nice 3.26 ERA in 113.3 innings. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is 3.81. That’s a rough idea of how many earned runs he would allow per nine innings when you only consider his strikeout rate, walk rate, and rate of home runs allowed per nine innings.

Of course, Keller also has a 4.35 xFIP, which is similar to FIP except it uses a league average home run rate. Keller has more than a run difference between his actual ERA and his xFIP, which is not a good sign. He’s projected to have a 4.71 ERA over the remainder of the season by the Fangraphs Depth Charts. If he does that, he will fall out of AL ROY contention.

At the moment, though, Keller has been one of the few bright spots for the Royals during a very ugly season. He’s been their best pitcher and possibly their second best player overall, after Whit Merrifield. Keller is only 22 years old, so he may have a nice future in Kansas City.

As for the Royals’ immediate future, it doesn’t look good. The last time the Royals lost 100 games was in 2006 and they didn’t have a winning record again until 2013. If it takes them that long for them to have a winning record after this year’s 100-loss season, Keller will be approaching 30 years old the next time they’re good. By then, his rookie season will be a speck on the rearview mirror of his life.

ST PETERSBURG, FL – AUGUST 23: Joey Wendle #18 of the Tampa Bay Rays hits a sac fly RBI in the third inning during a game against the Kansas City Royals at Tropicana Field on August 23, 2018 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) /

Rookie Ray of Sunshine

2B Joey Wendle
Fangraphs WAR: 2.5
Baseball-Reference WAR: 3.2
Wins Above Average: 1.6
Win Probability Added: 1.0

Another player who won’t win the AL ROY Award unless he has a big September is Tampa Bay Rays second baseman Joey Wendle. That being said, if you’re a fan of either popular version of WAR, Wendle is right there at the top of the list of rookies in the American League this season. It’s not his fault he plays in a dismal stadium for a team known more for their quirky pitching shenanigans than for the impressive season they’re having.

Joey Wendle is hitting .298/.346/.427 in 116 games. He has 48 runs scored, seven home runs, 49 RBI, and 12 steals. His 112 wRC+ means he’s been 12 percent above average on offense after league and ballpark effects are taken into account. In the field, he’s in the top five defensively among second baseman in the AL according to the Fangraphs defensive metric.

Wendle doesn’t shine in any one area. He doesn’t have the 20-plus home runs that a pair of rookies on the Yankees have and he doesn’t have the dual-player profile of a certain Angels rookie. Even without those qualities, he’s been right there with those other higher profile rookies so far this season. In a more objective world, Joey Wendle would get strong consideration for the AL Rookie of the Year.

In this world, he won’t. He won’t get a first-place vote. He’ll likely finish in the top five, though, which he should. He’s an unsung player on an unsung team. The Rays are at the very bottom of baseball in payroll, yet are 11 games over .500. The San Francisco Giants are under .500 with the second-highest payroll in baseball. Joey Wendle is one of the reasons why the Rays can be as competitive as they’ve been this year despite their low payroll.

NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 02: Miguel Andujar #41 of the New York Yankees in action against the Detroit Tigers at Yankee Stadium on September 2, 2018 in the Bronx borough of New York City. The Tigers defeated the Yankees 11-7. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

Yankee Rookie #1

3B Miguel Andujar
Fangraphs WAR: 2.5
Baseball-Reference WAR: 1.8
Wins Above Average: 0.1
Win Probability Added: 1.7

If only traditional offensive numbers mattered, Miguel Andujar would likely be the slam-dunk AL Rookie of the Year in 2018. He leads all AL rookies in runs, home runs and RBI. In the past, that would be enough. Even here in 2018, it might still be enough.

Offensive production is flashy. Andujar is projected to finish with 86 runs scored, 27 homers, and 89 RBI. That would be a much better offensive season than Wil Myers had when he won the AL ROY in 2013. It would be similar offensively to Evan Longoria when he took home the trophy in 2008.

But it wouldn’t be right for Andujar to win the AL ROY Award, at least not based on his season so far (with a little less than a month of the season remaining). Andujar has been good on offense this year, but his defense has been brutal. Of the 13 third baseman in the AL with 500 or more innings this year, Andujar ranks at the very bottom and it’s not very close.

The difference between third-ranked Jose Ramirez and 12^th-ranked Yangervis Solarte is less than the difference between Solarte and Andujar. Andujar’s defense has been detrimental to the Yankees, with 14 errors and a .943 fielding percentage at third base if you like traditional numbers and a -13.2 UZR if you embrace more advanced statistics.

The voters will like Andujar’s offense and that he plays on the Yankees, a team destined for the playoffs. He’ll likely finish in the top three in the AL ROY race and could take the award outright. He does have some competition, though, including one of his teammates.

NEW YORK, NY – AUGUST 29: Gleyber Torres #25 of the New York Yankees looks on against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at Yankee Stadium on August 29, 2018 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images) /

Yankee Rookie #2

2B Gleyber Torres
Fangraphs WAR: 2.2
Baseball-Reference WAR: 3.0
Wins Above Average: 1.6
Win Probability Added: 2.9

The other New York Yankees player in contention for the AL ROY Award is Gleyber Torres, who was a top-10 prospect on the Baseball America Top-100 before each of the last two seasons. Torres was acquired by the Yankees in a trade for Aroldis Chapman in the summer of 2016. Chapman helped the Cubs win the World Series that year. Torres could help the Yankees win a World Series this year or sometime in the near future.

Based on wRC+, Torres has been just as good as his teammate, Miguel Andujar, on offense. Andujar has a 130 wRC+; Torres is at 131. Torres also trails Andujar by just a single home run despite having 122 fewer plate appearances. Those fewer plate appearances hurt him in the counting stats, though, as he trails Andujar significantly in runs scored and RBI.

Where Torres makes up ground is on defense. Andujar has been the worst regular third baseman in the AL defensively. Torres hasn’t been great, but he’s been better than Andujar. He ranks 18^th of 20 second baseman with 700 or more defensive innings in the Fangraphs fielding metric.

Torres also bests Andujar in Win Probability Added. This is a statistic that captures the change in win expectancy for each plate appearance. Torres is just outside the top 10 in WPA. He ranks 11^th in the AL, with 2.9 WPA. This suggests he’s been successful in important situations. Andujar ranks 23^rd, with 1.7 WPA. That’s still good, but not as good as his rookie teammate.

The voters may be swayed by Andujar’s better offensive numbers in more plate appearances, but Torres has been the better rookie so far when defenses and win probability are added to the mix. Both should finish in the top three and one of these two may win the award outright, but it will depend on the final month production of Andujar, Torres and a certain dual threat playing on the west coast.

HOUSTON, TX – AUGUST 31: Mike Trout #27 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim high fives Shohei Ohtani #17 after a 3-0 win over the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on August 31, 2018 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

Amazing Angel

DH/SP Shohei Ohtani
Fangraphs WAR: 2.8
Baseball-Reference WAR: 3.0
Wins Above Average: 1.7
Win Probability Added: 2.6

*All numbers are Ohtani’s combined hitting and pitching numbers

Because the Los Angeles Angels are an afterthought in the playoff race, it’s easy to overlook the impressive season Shohei Ohtani is having. Rany Jazzayerli tweeted about Ohtani, calling him a “once-in-a-century comet” who is part of the 10/10 Club. That stands for 10 starts in a season and 10 home runs. Two players have done it: Babe Ruth in 1918 and 1919 and Shohei Ohtani in 2018.

SportsCenter had a similar tweet showing Babe Ruth and Shohei Ohtani as the only two players with 50 innings pitched and 15 home runs in a season. Put simply, Ohtani is doing something that hasn’t been done in almost 100 years. Unless you’re one of the 3.7 million centenarians in the world, and you happen to be reading this, you haven’t seen this before.

Shohei Ohtani is the first player since Babe Ruth in 1919 with 50 IP and 15 HR in a single season.

That's 99 years! pic.twitter.com/0h1kPJL4wL
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 3, 2018

Ohtani was so hyped before the season started that his actual season likely feels like a disappointment to some. It was easy to envision a healthy Ohtani pitching 125 effective innings and get 300 great plate appearances and help Mike Trout lead the Angels to the playoffs. Unfortunately, only one of those things will happen this year (the 300 plate appearances).