Colorado Rockies: Will DJ LeMahieu return to Colorado in Free Agency following this season?

Although LeMahieu and Ottavino are approaching free agency following the 2018 season, the Rockies franchise player reaches free agency following 2019 season.

According the baseball-reference, the Colorado Rockies are currently on pace to have a payroll of roughly $141 million next season if their arbitration eligible players are kept and the team options for Seunghwan Oh and Gerardo Parra are exercised.  According to Spotrac, the Rockies had a franchise record $107 million payroll in 2016 before reaching a $134 million payroll in 2017 and expanding to a $144 million payroll this season.

Although it is reasonable to assume the Rockies could be able to retain DJ LeMahieu without going above $160 million in 2019, the organization may have concerns about the 2020 and the 2021 seasons.  The baseball-reference salary page for the Rockies estimates the team to be at $176 million in 2020 and $187 in 2021 without factoring in free agent contracts for Adam Ottavino, Arenado, or LeMahieu.

If the Rockies decide to buy out Mike Dunn and Chris Iannetta, the above 2020 figure could decrease to $167 million.  The most important part comes in 2021 in which three relief pitchers could greatly impact the payroll.  The above 2021 figure includes pending options for Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee, and Wade Davis.  If the options of the thus far disappointing bullpen trio are bought out, the 2021 payroll could decrease by $28 million.

Unfortunately, this decision may not be up to the Rockies front office.  Shaw and McGee currently have team options that could turn into player options if certain tasks are met for each player.  Both players have the same qualifying structures that involve each being healthy to start the 2021 season while also having either 60 appearances, 40 games finished in 2019, or 110 appearances between 2019 and 2020.

Davis currently has a mutual option that would turn into a pricy player option if he simply finishes 30 games in 2020.  Due to these task structures, it is not out of the question that all three players could see their options turn into player options.  This heavily complicates the Rockies payroll future if they are interested in staying near the middle of the league in total payroll as they are right now.