Philadelphia Phillies: Only keeping four 2018 starters?
Now that the Philadelphia Phillies have been eliminated, let us look at which members of the roster will remain with the team next year.
Now that the Philadelphia Phillies have upheld the laws of probability by crashing and burning in a 0-4 series with the Atlanta Braves, it is time for a team post-mortem. It appeared nearly impossible for the Phillies to pull off a divisional championship just a few days ago, but after they jumped off a very high bridge down south, it seems appropriate to indicate who should stay and who should go from the core team.
This analysis will not include the on-field managerial staff (perhaps another day) or all of the bullpen since at last count, 589 players comprised the Phillies relief staff, and clearly some of them are actually minor leaguers who got look-sees because – why not? Some relievers will be addressed here. Not all starting pitchers will be addressed if they did not settle into significant roles in the rotation.
Starting Pitchers
It is widely and correctly asserted that the following five players kept the Phillies in first place for about five weeks and, possibly, over .500 for the season:
Aaron Nola – Why not start with the obvious? No team dumps a potential Cy Young awardee. The only question remaining is whether or not Nola should make his last start. At 16-6, he shouldn’t. There’s nothing magical about a 17th win, and he’s looked a bit tired in passing 200 innings. Preserve his health and his sterling 0.979 WHIP. Of all players on the roster, Nola gets the strongest keep label on the team.
Jake Arrieta – Potentially removing Arrieta could be one of the hardest decisions if somehow the Phillies were offered an everyday player of the caliber of Lorenzo Cain, but don’t bet on that kind of trade even if you infer the Phillies eating some of Arrieta’s $25 million contract for next year and some for 2020. With one start to go, Arrieta’s winning percentage, WHIP, and FIP figures have all slipped below his career averages, but he is a competitor, and could make the team more attractive to potential high-caliber recruits like Manny Machado or Bryce Harper. Keep Arrieta. (And don’t even think of moving him for a bunch of “promising young players.” Phillies fans, who voted to keep their wallets closed this summer, even when the team was in first place, have had it with that.)
Zach Eflin – Of the three pitchers who settled into the rotation as the back end, Eflin has the best record moving into the season’s last week (11-8, 4.36 ERA, 1.305 WHIP). Additionally, his FIP figure this season is better than his career figure by 1.00 (after play Sept. 24). Of the pitchers who became no. 3, no. 4 and no. 5 in the rotation, Eflin should be the third to be dangled in trade discussions, behind the next two players listed. Keep Eflin unless offered a clear upgrade in a clear need area.
Nick Pivetta – Despite sporting the worst won-lost record at the back end (7-13), Pivetta is the youngest of them, has the best WHIP (before play Sept. 25) and maybe the highest ceiling. As with Eflin, keep Pivetta unless….
Vince Velasquez – Vinny Velo is a mystery. He has overpowering, no-hit potential, but after sizable parts of four seasons in MLB, he still has a losing record, and while his career WHIP is zig-zagging downward, it is still 1.344. Velasquez is perhaps the most obvious player on the roster who might benefit from a change of scenery. He will also turn 27 before the midway point of next season. Velasquez is arbitration eligible after the season; strongly consider non-tendering him, or if management is still indecisive in December, work through arbitration and trade him if possible.
The only other pitcher to start as many as five games for the ’18 Phillies, Ben Lively, was claimed off waivers by Kansas City this month. If somehow the Phillies moved Velasquez, Pivetta or Eflin only and acquired no other starter, they would be moving into spring training with Triple-A left-hander Cole Irvin as their tentative fifth starter, but no team actually admits to such clear designations in February. Irvin (14-4, 2.57 ERA, 1.054 WHIP) should be kept.
Relief Pitchers
Let’s keep this simple: Keep Seranthony Dominguez, Edubray Ramos, Victor Arano and Pat Neshek if possible and Neshek doesn’t somehow become an obviously old man over the off-season. (He is 38 but does have a contract.) These are your WHIP leaders, and a relief pitcher’s foundation statistic must be his WHIP.
All four are running between 0.946 and 1.183, but could be traded for the right player or players. The rest of the Phillies relievers should be traded if possible, in some cases even for a bag of balls. It is a little tempting to keep Hector Neris if possible, and he too is arbitration eligible, but who’s to say his splitter won’t disappear in the middle of next summer as it did this season.
Catchers
Veteran Wilson Ramos must be kept. A new contract must be created since his expires at the end of the season. Acquired just hours before the trade deadline, Ramos has hit .353 for the Phillies since arriving, and he is the best defensive catcher on the team right now. By next spring he may even be running a little better.
Both Jorge Alfaro and Andrew Knapp should be considered trade bait. Keep one. While Alfaro has a rocket arm, he hasn’t obviously progressed that much this year defensively although he seems to work well with Nola. He’s a better hitter than Knapp, and has a higher ceiling offensively as well.
Infielders
An informal count on one’s fingers says the Phillies have three first basemen, three second basemen, three shortstops, and five third basemen, with some overlapping that will be indicated in parentheses below after both infielders and outfielders are assigned to their proper 1968 positions. Yes, that won’t exactly reflect modern baseball, but readers won’t put up with three listings for Scott Kingery, for example, nor should they. After all, he puts his glove down largely the same way to field a ground ball at second, shortstop and third, and the guy’s hitting .226. How much analysis does he get?
First Basemen
Rhys Hoskins (left field) gets the second strongest keep label on the team because of his 33 home runs and 94 RBI. He might be listed first over Nola since he’s an everyday player, but despite fine power numbers, his first full season has reinforced what his brief MLB introduction last season suggested – he can be streaky – like most power hitters. His intelligent plate approach and keen eye suggest he may be less slump-prone as time moves on.
Carlos Santana (third base) should be moved, but only for someone worthwhile. The switch-hitting walk machine scores and drives in runs, but the fact of the matter is that the Phillies now have another first baseman-outfielder waiting at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, Joey Meneses (.311/.360/.510), who wouldn’t cost anything like Santana’s $40 million for the next two years, and promoting him would allow the Phillies to keep Hoskins in left, or not, and use proven run-producer Santana to either repair the starting rotation or the outfield by trading him.
Justin Bour’s category is NGIS, which is not another TV show about ultra-clever government detectives. NGIS, instead, means “nice guy, I’m sure.” It also means, in this case, somewhat interesting rental player whose contract is up. Bour, like others, is arbitration eligible; non-tender or trade him after the process.
Second Basemen
Cesar Hernandez was the Phillies second baseman for most of the season, and in both 2016 and ’17 had the highest batting average on the team. However, despite his speed and willingness to hustle, Hernandez’ offensive numbers (walks notwithstanding) have fallen off somewhat steeply in the aggregate. He would an interesting piece for a team trying to build itself up by adding a couple of “professional” veterans. Hernandez is also arbitration eligible; work through the process and evaluate trading him depending on circumstances in February.
Pedro Florimon (shortstop, third base, outfield, pitcher) is a utilityman listed here at the first position that makes some sense for him. The only year he played a nearly full season, he hit .221 for Minnesota – five years ago. His contract is up. Florimon should be non-tendered since he’s arbitration eligible. (But go through arbitration if you can’t clearly replace him by January with better utilityman who knows he will be an utilityman. Florimon’s .231 average is the best of his career besides that weird .348 for the Phillies in 15 games in ’17.)
Shortstops
Scott Kingery (second base, third base, outfield, pitcher) and J.P. Crawford (third base) should be replaced through a trade for Andrelton Simmons or Jean Segura, who are both mid-contract in deals the Phillies could handle. However, management is not likely to do that.
They will pretend Kingery and Crawford are “battling” for the Opening Day start at shortstop in ’19, and will continue their somewhat pointless shuffling of the defensive lineup just in case several players are all in a car accident together, and the shortstop needs to be replaced by the second baseman, the third baseman by the first baseman, and so on. At the end of spring training, Kingery, who has started 94 games at short to Crawford’s 27 this season before Sept. 25, will probably start at short.
All of this could be undone by an injury to Maikel Franco or Hernandez leaving, in which case the Phillies will put Kingery at second base, Crawford at short, and start all over again in ’19, knowing as little as they did Opening Day in ’18.
Third Basemen
See Santana above.
Maikel Franco is another tough call. Once again, this streaky player had a hot streak. Bottom line offensively – before play Sept. 25 he was hitting .270 (18 points above his career average), and what he does until the end of the year won’t change that number or his 68 RBI very much since Phillies management will continue to tinker with the lineup until the bitter end.
Franco is a somewhat underrated fielder. There are surely advanced metrics on him that say, “Oh, no – that’s wrong!” But what an eye test suggests is he still has excellent reflexes five years into his career (three as a full-time player) and makes the important third baseman’s bare-handed pickup as well as anyone. Reluctantly, keep Franco unless a package can be assembled that moves him for someone terrific after negotiation or arbitration. And if he’s kept, work harder at moving Santana.
Outfielders
See Hoskins above.
Odubel Herrera has now passed his “BEST BY” date and should be jettisoned in favor of Roman Quinn in center field. His slash line features the worst figures of his career in BA and OBP (.256/.313/.424 after Sept. 24), and although he can make marvelous defensive plays now and then, he is just too “high variance,” a wildly streaky player (to borrow an NFL phrase). He’s either very good or very bad, sometimes for weeks at a time. Quinn can steal bases, make all or most plays Herrera could defensively, and has a nice, if limited, slash line (.282/.331/.464 in 44 games this year).
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Proviso: Herrera has a team-friendly contract. If a better than decent return for him isn’t possible, he should be the fourth outfielder and try to win his starting job back. This would also apply if Santana isn’t moved and Hoskins remains in left field, which is quite likely.
Nick Williams keeps the right field job by default, barring the acquisition of someone with Lorenzo Cain’s talent, unless Joey Meneses takes the position in spring training.
Aaron Altherr, who has all the native athletic talent in the world, ran into a wall on Sept. 24 in Denver, and probably ended a dreadful campaign that saw him demoted for a while to Triple-A and fail to crack the Mendoza line in average. It’s probably time for a change of scenery for Altherr, but he’s eligible for arbitration too.
Dylan Cozens probably needs at least another half-season in Triple-A so that he can cross the .100 line for his MLB average.
Jose Bautista, near the end of his career, has pushed his batting average up by jumping from one team to another, to another, in the NL East this year. Joey Bats’ inexpensive contract is up, but he could be invited to spring training as a potential bat off the bench again. He can also still play some outfield.
Next. Decisive bullpen moves for 2019. dark
Conclusion
It has been an odd season for the Philadelphia Phillies. This oddness has been driven by new management ideas needing refinement. Someday they may be refined to a point they help a team with the second best record in the NL Aug. 5 stay near the top of the standings. This year, however, they have produced a .500 team featuring a whole lot of iffiness and exactly four starting players (two pitchers) who should definitely stay with the team.