Call to the pen
Fansided

MLB Playoffs: 2018 ALDS Series Preview Houston vs. Cleveland

By Bobby Mueller

TORONTO, ON - SEPTEMBER 26: Alex Bregman #2 of the Houston Astros celebrates in the clubhouse with Jose Altuve #27 after the Astros clinched the American League West division title after their MLB game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on September 26, 2018 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - SEPTEMBER 26: Alex Bregman #2 of the Houston Astros celebrates in the clubhouse with Jose Altuve #27 after the Astros clinched the American League West division title after their MLB game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on September 26, 2018 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
4 of 4
Next
MLB playoffs
CHICAGO, IL – SEPTEMBER 26: Brad Hand #33 of the Cleveland Indians pitches in the eighth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on September 26, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

2018 MLB Playoffs: Astros/Indians Bullpen and Defense

Houston Astros relief pitching: 3rd in MLB (8.2 WAR)

The Astros had some tough decisions to make when deciding on the make up of their bullpen for the ALDS. Hector Rondon, Chris Devenski, Brad Peacock and Joe Smith didn’t make the cut. Instead, veteran Will Harris and rookie flamethrower Josh James made the roster, along with five others in the team’s seven-man bullpen.

According to Fangraphs WAR, Rondon was the second-best reliever on the team during the regular season. He had a 3.20 ERA and 2.79 FIP in 59 innings. He was much better in the first half (1.94 FIP) than the second half (3.97 FIP), which likely played into the decision to leave him off the ALDS roster. The rookie Josh James has just 7.7 major league innings under his belt but throws hot fire with a 97.1 mph fastball.

The other five relievers will be Roberto Osuna, Ryan Pressly, Collin McHugh, Tony Sipp and Lance McCullers, Jr., who is typically a starting pitcher. Osuna is the team’s new closer after being acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays in a controversial trade just before the trade deadline. Osuna missed half this season while serving a 75-game suspension for violating MLB’s Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy.

Ryan Pressly was also a mid-season trade acquisition. The Astros picked him up from the Twins for two prospects and Pressly was terrific down the stretch. With Houston, he’s pitched 23.3 innings with a 0.77 ERA and 1.49 FIP. Collin McHugh was also impressive in relief this year, posting a 1.99 ERA and 2.72 FIP in 72.3 innings. The lone lefty is Tony Sipp (1.86 ERA, 2.41 ERA in 38.7 IP).

Cleveland Indians relief pitching: 27th in MLB (0.4 WAR)

While both teams have great offenses and the two best starting rotations in baseball, there appears to be a big difference in the caliber of their bullpens. It should be noted that the Indians improved as the season went on, particularly with the additions of Brad Hand and Oliver Perez. In the first half, Cleveland ranked 28th in baseball. In the second half, they were 15th.

The key innings will be handled by Brad Hand, Andrew Miller and Cody Allen. Miller and Allen aren’t the weapons they were the last few years. Miller was limited by injuries this season and had a 4.24 ERA and 3.51 FIP in 34 innings. Allen was even worse, with a 4.70 ERA and 4.56 FIP in 67 innings. He still led the team in saves, but this was by far his worse season. Hand was the best of the three, with a 2.28 ERA and 3.23 FIP in his 27.7 innings with the team.

The rest of the bullpen looks to be Oliver Perez, Adam Cimber and Dan Otero. Perez gives the team a third lefty, along with Hand and Miller. He was very good this year, with a 1.39 ERA and 1.74 FIP in 32.3 innings. He’s the proverbial LOOGY (Left-handed One Out GuY). Cimber is a sidearmer who generates ground balls on 65.8 percent of the balls he allows in play. Otero is a perfectly cromulent right-handed relief pitcher.

Houston Astros defense: 22nd in MLB
Cleveland Indians defense: 8th in MLB

More from Cleveland Guardians

According to the Fangraphs metric for defense, the Astros ranked 22nd in MLB with the gloves. This is the one area in which Cleveland has an advantage. The Indians’ Yan Gomes graded out better than the main starter behind the plate for Houston, Martin Maldonaldo. Neither Yonder Alonso (Cleveland) nor

Yuli Gurriel

(Houston) were very impressive with the leather at first base.

The real advantage for Cleveland is the middle infield and third base, although Josh Donaldson is a bit of a wild card because of his season-long struggles with injuries. Lindor has been much better than Correa in the field this season and both Jose Ramirez and Jason Kipnis are better than Altuve at second base. The outfield is fairly even.

Outlook

With the best run-differential in baseball and an expected record of 112-50, it would seem the Astros have the advantage over the 91-win Indians. That being said, the Indians also had an impressive +170 run-differential, with an expected record of 100-62. They’re better than their 91-71 record. With such good pitching rotations, this should be a low-scoring series, which will bring the bullpen into play. The Astros have the edge there.

dark. Next. How umpires fared on Thursday night

Vegas has Cleveland with the advantage, giving them a 52.5 percent chance to win the ALDS. As it happens, that’s just about the same edge Fangraphs has for Cleveland. ESPN had 27 experts give their prediction and 15 of the 27 chose the Astros. We all know, though, a 5-game series in the MLB playoffs can go in any direction!

Home/Cleveland Guardians